The South Caucasus stands between the remnants of war and the promise of a new era of peace and connectivity. Following the Second Karabakh War, the destruction of the symbolic “ring,” which marks the end of the conflict in this context, has opened an opportunity to reshape relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Yet, as in Tolkien’s Middle-earth after the fall of Sauron, peace remains vulnerable and incomplete. The shadows, so to speak, have not fully lifted as no formal peace treaty has been signed, and the path toward trust remains gradual and complex.

In recent years, Azerbaijan has undergone a notable shift in its foreign policy posture, engaging with an increasing number of political, economic, and regional partners across multiple geographies as part of a multivector approach aimed at expanding its influence worldwide.

Cooperation between Azerbaijan and the five Central Asian states has recently been upgraded from a bilateral economic partnership into a consistent and dynamic geopolitical axis shaped by the shifting strategic landscape of the Silk Road region. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s most recent visit to Uzbekistan to attend the Seventh Consultative Meeting of Central Asian Leaders marked a significant milestone in the country’s long-term foreign policy strategy. As a result of this groundbreaking visit, Azerbaijan became a full member of the C5 format, prompting further diversification of Central Asia’s policy agenda.

In October 2024, just one month before Azerbaijan hosted the twenty-ninth Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Baku, heavy rains in the capital caused significant damage to infrastructure and transportation, resulting in a flood that tragically took two lives. These deaths, which may be linked to climate change, underscore the need for a deeper examination of climate change law and the potential for climate litigation in Azerbaijan.

In September 2025, the UK’s Minister for Europe, Stephen Doughty, announced in Baku that the bilateral relationship with Azerbaijan would be upgraded to a “strategic partnership.” The declaration emphasized cooperation on “growth, security, education, and climate objectives” and recognized Azerbaijan’s role in regional stability and energy security. Historically, the UK has been Azerbaijan’s largest foreign investor, led by bp’s involvement in oil and gas development since the early 1990s. This cooperation served as a cornerstone for Azerbaijan’s post-independence recovery. However, as Doughty highlighted during his visit, both countries now share a responsibility to turn this legacy into a green and diversified economic partnership. The inaugural UK-Azerbaijan Policy Dialogue, held shortly after the announcement at ADA University, reaffirmed this shift as both countries pursue a twin-track policy of maintaining energy security while expanding renewables.

Donald Trump’s recent achievements in the Middle East, which came about in no small measure thanks to the efforts of Egypt, Qatar, Türkiye, and several other states, should not overshadow the strategic path laid forward during his successful White House peace summit with Armenia and Azerbaijan, held at the White House on 8 August 2025. Trump and his counterparts from the South Caucasus, Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan, each left the building with more than they arrived with; all advanced their countries’ national interests; all made commitments they can keep; and none gave away the store.

In the light of contemporary geopolitical shifts and rivalries between states that significantly constrain the capacity of the UN Secretariat and, more broadly, the UN System, to lead or coordinate mediation efforts, what was once regarded as the cornerstone of multilateral peacekeeping and mediation has largely fallen to the wayside.

This IDD Analytical Policy Brief gives an account of how and why Azerbaijan has solidified its position as a reliable energy partner to Türkiye, the EU, and other parts of Europe while accelerating its transition to producing energy from renewable sources. Amid growing geopolitical volatility and the urgent need to diversify energy supplies, Azerbaijan’s strategic energy diplomacy has included increased fossil fuel exports and significant investments in renewables. The country is thus emerging as a central hub in a new Caspian Green Energy Corridor—a strategic initiative to bolster energy security and diversification, linking Central Asia and Europe via the South Caucasus. Key regional initiatives, including the Black Sea Submarine Cable project (BSSC), support this ambition, as will be explained.

“Europe is in a fight.” With these words, Ursula von der Leyen began her State of the Union address on 10 September 2025, framing the EU’s struggle as one for existence, peace, values, freedom, and independence. This statement illustrates the sense of urgency in the current geopolitical headwinds but also reflects the “uncomfortable” shift for many in the EU for a supranational entity that started out as a peace project. “Battlelines for a new world order based on power are being drawn right now,” she said. “So, yes, Europe must fight.” This characterization leads us to the deeper question of how the European Union defines and projects itself internationally.

The European Union’s decision to grant candidate status to Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine in 2022-2023 represents a historic turning point in the EU’s engagement with its neighbors to the east. These developments have reinvigorated public debates about the future of the Eastern Partnership (EaP), a regional initiative launched in 2009 to strengthen the EU’s relations with six post-Soviet states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. Initially conceived as a multilateral framework to promote “shared” norms, democratic governance, and gradual economic integration, the EaP today appears increasingly fragmented and asymmetrical. The divergent trajectories of the EaP countries have raised important questions about the continued relevance, coherence, and strategic utility of the EaP framework in the evolving geopolitical context.