Judging from the standpoint of its national interests as it itself understood them at the time, Russia lost this war at the moment its missiles first hit Kyiv in the early morning of 24 February 2022. Yet, paradoxically, there is no other way left for Russia except to endure and reiterate the same pattern over and over again in anticipation of a different outcome. Attacking Ukraine was a war of choice. As such, the Kremlin (theoretically) still can reassess its course and agree to negotiate a reasonable compromise whilst finding a way to claim a “triumph” for its domestic audience.

Our region is going through tectonic changes. First, we saw the liberation war of Azerbaijan over its occupied territories in Karabakh. These internationally recognized lands of Azerbaijan were occupied by Armenia for more than 30 years. The war resulted in Russian peacekeepers entering Azerbaijani sovereign lands. Then began the Russian-Ukrainian war or, as some people call it, “all-European war.” And now we see drastic escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

On 4 December 2024, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced sanctions targeting 19 top members of Georgia’s government and security establishment. This decision followed a crackdown on demonstrations and the detention or arrest of some protesters in the wake of Georgia’s contested parliamentary elections last October, in which the ruling Georgian Dream party declared victory. This episode, among many others, reflects the continuing evolution of the post-Soviet space.

The ecological crisis is one that is well-documented in its various manifestations of industrial pollution, resource depletion, and population explosion. The essential ingredients for human survival, especially water supplies and agricultural land, are being threatened across the planet by population and industrial pressures. Moreover, the widespread destruction of species and the unrelenting loss of habitat continues to accelerate. This becomes more and more a matter of concern for scholars, environmentalists, citizens actively engaged in public activities, and people who really care about the future of our planet. Many efforts are being made now to help solve environmental problems at the international level to create ecology- -oriented movements, pursue certain politics and so on.

Declining river flows exacerbate the problem for Azerbaijan and the rest of the South Caucasus. Earlier this week, UNEP released a report on the region indicating that in 2020 Armenia and Azerbaijan both experienced significant declines in river flows—plummeting 26 percent and 20 percent, respectively. Between 2000 and 2020, the annual flow of the Kura River—a key transboundary water source shared by Türkiye, Georgia, and Azerbaijan that will be discussed in greater detail below—dropped by 20 percent. Furthermore, groundwater withdrawals doubled in Armenia and increased by 400 percent, which is alarming for Azerbaijan as this signals a growing reliance on non-renewable water sources as surface water becomes scarcer. As mountain snow and glaciers continue to recede, the region’s freshwater supply is expected to go down further, underscoring the need for efficient water management strategies and cross-border data sharing.

Commercial vessels passing through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea handled an estimated 15 percent of global trade in 2023, including 25-30 percent of all container traffic. Since the Houthi attacks began, the number of vessels passing through the Suez Canal has fallen by 85 percent. Many large shipping companies are using alternative routes. As a result, according to one estimate, the freight costs of shipping from Asia to Europe rose by nearly 300 percent between October 2023 to March 2024.

The tragic death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a plane crash in May 2024 marked the beginning of a new stage in Iranian politics. A month and a half later, the election of Masud Pezeshkian, a reformist of ethnic-Azerbaijani origin, as the new president of the country gives many hopes for positive changes in the domestic and foreign policy of the Islamic Republic. However, given Iran’s sophisticated political system, headed by the Supreme Leader (Rahbar, in Persian), rapid reforms cannot yet be expected.

Policymakers around the world continue experimenting with different approaches to produce more renewable power in an attempt to achieve their obligations within the framework of the UNFCCC. On the one hand, wind and solar energy projects are on the agendas of numerous governments worldwide. On the other hand, producing renewable energy requires developing electricity infrastructure at the same pace. Consequently, electricity grids are currently evolving into a significant impediment and bottleneck to the swift implementation of renewable energy generation.

Presided over by Azerbaijan—a constitutionally secular republic whose population is nominally Muslim (the majority is Shia, the minority is Sunni)—COP29 will be the most important and inclusive diplomatic event of 2024: the flagship annual conference of the most complex multilateral undertaking in the history of humanity. Although the conference’s central issue will be climate finance, several others will also have pride of place. Of these, most in one way or another will have something to do with water. As a country suffering from water scarcity whilst also being a keystone state in one of the world’s keystone regions, the Azerbaijani presidency of COP29 is well within its rights to emphasize the importance of the sanctity of nature and, within this theological framework, of the sanctity of water and the broader obligation of humanity to be a responsible steward of the natural environment.

The 2024 summer campaign of the European War (a.k.a., the war in Ukraine) is in full swing. So far, this campaign has not brought about any dramatic changes in the strategic military situation on the ground. However, associated developments are not limited to the particular war theatre only, but outspread far beyond it. While Russian and Ukrainian troops are bleeding in fierce combat for hamlets, tracts, and groves, which are hard to locate even on a detailed map, the broader conflict’s settings are gradually evolving toward globalization. What was initially contemplated as a brief military operation under an adagio of “Kiev in three days” has been transformed into a long drawn-out war that has no political solution in sight but instead presents a growing possibility of evolving into a wide confrontation between the West and Russia and its allies. The rhetoric and activities of both Russia and the Western alliance steadily yet surely escalate, projecting their mutual antagonism to other regions of the world. The potential consequences of that collision course could be severe.