Policy Research, Analysis & Publications

The Institute for Development and Diplomacy publishes occasional analytic policy briefs and memos, working papers, monographs, and special reports on various subject areas, including: grand strategy, statecraft, geopolitics; diplomacy & multilateralism; defense & security; peacemaking & regional cooperation; transportation & infrastructure; economics & trade; development & governance reform; energy; sustainable development; and Karabakh & reconciliation. While we do not restrict ourselves in terms of geographic scope, our particular focus is on the overlapping set of regions to which Azerbaijan and its neighbors belong. IDD is also the institutional home of the academic book imprint ADA University Press and our flagship quarterly policy journal Baku Dialogues.

Sustainable Development

While Azerbaijan contributes only a small fraction (0.1 percent) to global greenhouse gas emissions, the country is experiencing significant impacts of climate change. This highlights the importance of adaptation strategies, particularly in regions with a strong agricultural sector and coastal proximity. The Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, characterized by arid and continental climate, advanced agriculture, and scarcity of water resources, is one of Azerbaijan’s most vulnerable regions to climate change.

What follows is a summary of the roundtable presentation made by Olcay Ünver at ADA University’s Institute for Development and Diplomacy (IDD) on 11 March 2024 within the framework of our Water Diplomacy Series. Ünver is a Professor of Practice at the Environmental and Resource Management Program and Senior Global Futures Scientist with the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory at Arizona State University; he also holds concurrent appointments inter alia at the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), where he is Senior Water Advisor and had served as its Vice-Chair and also led its water programs and activities (having previously led UN Water’s World Water Assessment Programme and UNESCO’s Program Office on Global Water Assessment).

This IDD paper summarizes the discussions that took place in a Policy Design Workshop titled “New EU policy objectives toward the EaP: How do these objectives strengthen the resilience of the societies in the EaP region” that took place on 4-5 April 2024 in Tbilisi, Georgia, under the auspices of the Institute for Development and Diplomacy’s Jean Monnet Center of Excellence in EU Studies, which aims inter alia to provide a platform for voices from three Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries (i.e., Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine) to discuss the future of the EaP framework (project number: 101085083). The event explored the EU’s new policy objectives toward the EaP by bringing together policy analysts, scholars, and young researchers from Georgia and Azerbaijan.

This IDD Analytical Policy Brief recommends transforming Azerbaijan’s laudable “Friends of Schoolchildren” (“Məktəblinin dostu”) pilot initiative into a comprehensive “School Counseling Program” nationwide. Recognizing the essential role of school counselors globally, the paper urges the Ministry of Science and Education to align counselor responsibilities with international standards. The way forward requires placing greater emphasis on efficient recruitment and preparation as well as greater engagement with relevant institutions and stakeholders. The IDD paper goes on to outline challenges, draw international parallels, and provide an outline of the proposed policy, concluding with recommendations for the Ministry

Dealing with a Decrease in the Caspian Sea Level

Nazrin Baghirova and Rodrigo Labardini 9 February 2024

This document summarizes the roundtable discussion organized by the Institute for Development and Diplomacy at ADA University on 23 January 2024, with an introduction provided by Nazrin Baghirova and a framing set of remarks provided by Rodrigo Labardini. Participants included high-level representatives from the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resource, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Water Resources Agency, the Port of Baku, the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, scientists from the State Institute of Geology and Geophysics, the Institute of Geography, Temiz Sheher Joint Open Stock Company, and Azersu Joint open Stock Company, as well as UN Food and Agriculture Organization, the embassies of Hungary, Mexico, and Egypt, experts from the Azerbaijan Hydrometeorological Service, and water irrigation experts

In the knowledge-based world of today, one of the main driving forces of the socio-economic development of a country is learning, research, innovation as well as collaboration with other institutions and countries. Researchers Rasa Daugeliene and Rita Marcinkeviciene in their 2009 article “Brain Circulation: Theoretical Considerations” wrote that “the migration of highly-qualified persons is a natural phenomenon of this century which is called as knowledge society or knowledge economy era.”

Water Diplomacy

Nazrin Baghirova, Rodrigo Labardini, and Aliagha Azizov 23 January 2024

This document summarizes a roundtable discussion organized by the Institute for Development and Diplomacy at ADA University on 18 December 2023, with introductory remarks provided by IDD Research Fellow Nazrin Baghirova. Participants included high- level representatives from the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resource, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Water Resources Agency, the Word Bank, the Port of Baku, the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan State Oil and Industry University, geologists, water irrigation experts, Temiz Sheher Joint Open Stock Company, and Azersu Joint open Stock Company.

Let us begin with a few definitions and statistical observations. A UN website dedicated to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) states (under SDG5 – Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment) that gender equality “is not only a fundamental human right, but a necessary foundation for a peaceful, prosperous, and sustainable world.” Another UN website defines gender inequality as a “social process by which people are treated differently and disadvantageously, under similar circumstances, on the basis of gender.” An EU-initiated semi-official body called the European Institute for Gender Equality describes gender inequality as a “legal, social, and cultural situation in which sex and/or gender determine different rights and dignity for women and men, which are reflected in their unequal access to or enjoyment of rights, as well as the assumption of stereotyped social and cultural roles.”

The Caspian Sea lies at the center of the Silk Road region and represents the hinge between the East (Central Asia and China), the West (the Caucasus, the Black Sea, Anatolia, and Europe), the North (the Baltic Sea), and the South (the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean). As with any large geographical feature, the Caspian Sea serves both as a connector among—and a divider between—sub-regions. These characteristics have been in place for millennia. Today, however, as does the rest of the world, the Caspian Sea faces daunting environmental challenges, including water level fluctuation, pollution, the introduction of exotic or invasive species, the loss of flora reservoirs, and eutrophication.

The Caspian Sea lies at the center of the Silk Road region and represents the hinge between the East (Central Asia and China), the West (the Caucasus, the Black Sea, Anatolia, and Europe), the North (the Baltic Sea), and the South (the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean). As with any large geographical feature, the Caspian Sea serves both as a connector among—and a divider between—sub-regions. These characteristics have been in place for millennia. Today, however, as does the rest of the world, the Caspian Sea faces daunting environmental challenges, including water level fluctuation, pollution, the introduction of exotic or invasive species, the loss of flora reservoirs, and eutrophication.

In July 2022, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan signed a decree putting into effect the “Socio-economic Development Strategy of the Republic of Azerbaijan in 2022- 2026,” which outlines economic and social priorities for the five-year period from 2022 to 2026. This strategic plan is designed to drive sustainable growth, improve living standards, and enhance the overall well-being of the Azerbaijani people. It encompasses a range of key objectives, including further diversifying the economy, investing in infrastructure, fostering innovation, promoting social inclusion, and strengthening governance.

One of the consequences of the liberation of Karabakh has been the adoption of the Great Return program designed to revive the formerly occupied lands. The First State Program on the Great Return (November 2022) set objectives to ensure the sustainable resettlement of the retuning population to Karabakh and to establish sustainable communities in the liberated areas, integrate the local economy into na- tional and foreign value chains, improve the local ecological environment, and apply environmentally friendly technologies to economic development. These objectives comply with various UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), i.e., SDG8, SDG9, SDG11, SDG12, and SDG13.

The Traditional Kahriz (Qanats) Water Management System

Hajar Huseynova and Anar Nuriyev 5 December 2023

Kahriz (also known as qanat and other terms) is a traditional resource-efficient water transport and management system used for millennia in arid and semi-arid regions. This underground water system has been employed for centuries in Iran, Azerbaijan, and other parts of the Silk Road region, the Middle East, and North Africa. It is an underground facility system created to collect aquifer and groundwater sustainably and bring it to the surface naturally, with its own flow. Traditional systems of this nature, employing an integrated approach to water resources management, were used in agricultural cultivation and aimed to achieve food self-sufficiency in arid regions. They were implemented to preserve biodiversity in ecosystems and promote balanced living in environments highly susceptible to rapid environmental changes.

The mining and metal industry is generally considered one of the world’s most economically viable industries—not only because it provides significant employment opportunities but also because it provides essential raw materials without which entire sectors of the global economy would grind to a halt. However, it is also one of the biggest contributors to global CO2 emissions, as it is one of the most energy-intensive industries, with iron and steel manufacturing classified as the largest contributor of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG). A recent study indicates that “steel products are responsible for 11 percent of all CO2 emissions” and leave a carbon footprint of between 1.4 tons per produced ton of steel (IEA figure) and 1.85 (McKinsey and the World Steel Association figure). Another recent study indicates that 0.3426 tons of CO2 is emitted per 1 ton of produced steel rebar.

The mining and metal industry is generally considered one of the world’s most economically viable industries—not only because it provides significant employment opportunities but also because it provides essential raw materials without which entire sectors of the global economy would grind to a halt. However, it is also one of the biggest contributors to global CO2 emissions, as it is one of the most energy-intensive industries, with iron and steel manufacturing classified as the largest contributor of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG). A recent study indicates that “steel products are responsible for 11 percent of all CO2 emissions” and leave a carbon footprint of between 1.4 tons per produced ton of steel (IEA figure) and 1.85 (McKinsey and the World Steel Association figure). Another recent study indicates that 0.3426 tons of CO2 is emitted per 1 ton of produced steel rebar.

This document summarizes a roundtable discussion titled “Women’s Leadership and Gender (In)Equality in Academia” that took place on 16 November 2023 under the auspices of UNESCO Participation Program at the Institute for Development and Diplomacy (IDD) of ADA University. The event was moderated by Inara Yagubova. Participants represented a wide range of Azerbaijani stakeholders including universities, research centers, non-governmental organizations, and independent experts. The roundtable was organized in view of the current situation in Azerbaijan regarding women’s underrepresentation at managerial positions in higher education institutions (HEIs) and academia overall. The roundtable aimed to focus on the promotion of gender equality and the importance of having women in senior leadership positions.

The Role of Women in Food Security

Nazrin Baghirova 29 November 2023

The discussions began with the introduction of the importance of the women in global food security. Hence, according to a USAID Fact Sheet, “women are responsible for half of the world’s food production, and in most developing countries they produce between 60 and 80 percent of the food. Yet, women continue to be regarded as home producers or assistants on the farm, and not as farmers and economic agents on their own merit.” This can be paired with a statement made by the FAO in 2011: “If women in rural areas had the same access to productive activities as men, agricultural and farming production would increase, and we could feed approximately 150 million more people.” According to a 2019 Asian Development Bank report, 82% of economically active women in Azerbaijan are involved in five sectors of economy: agriculture (42.10%), trade (18.20%), education (11%), healthcare (6.10%), and food processing (3.5%).

The recent set of understandings reached between Baku and Tehran on reducing tensions and stabilizing this important bilateral relationship is surely a welcome development, particularly in light of more recent events in neighboring geopolitical theaters, including the Middle East. Nevertheless, various matters of bilateral concern remain open, which could have negative impacts on the sustainability of the aforementioned initiative. Among these is the thread of issues revolving around Urmia Lake, the largest wetland in Iran. This Iranian body of water continues to be in severe environmental crisis—a crisis deeply intertwined with political, economic, and demographic dynamics. The alarming decline of the lake is more than just an ecological concern; it has far-reaching social and political implications, potentially affecting the local population living on or near its shores, which includes ethnic-Azerbaijanis.

This document summarizes a roundtable discussion organized by the Institute for Development and Diplomacy at ADA University on 17 October 2023 and moderated by the author on the topic of “Smart Farming for Sustainable Agriculture in Karabakh as an Exemplary Model: Needs for National Strategy and Policies.” Participants included representatives from the Ministry of Agriculture (Innovation Center), the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, the Azerbaijan Water Resources Agency; scientists and experts in agriculture, and ADA University students. The discussion began with an examination of the strategic decisions made in this area of public policy after the liberation of Karabakh. The government of Azerbaijan made a ten year budget allocation of several billions of dollars into the revival of the largely destroyed Karabakh within the program of the ‘Great Return.”

The mining and metal industry is generally considered one of the world’s most economically viable industries—not only because it provides significant employment opportunities but also because it provides essential raw materials without which entire sectors of the global economy would grind to a halt. However, it is also one of the biggest contributors to global CO2 emissions, as it is one of the most energy-intensive industries, with iron and steel manufacturing classified as the largest contributor of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG). A recent study indicates that “steel products are responsible for 11 percent of all CO2 emissions” and leave a carbon footprint of between 1.4 tons per produced ton of steel (IEA figure) and 1.85 (McKinsey and the World Steel Association figure).

In the face of accelerating climate change, the world is approaching a critical juncture at which greater coordinated action will need to be seen as a global imperative. The impact of rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and increasingly shifting climate patterns demand an unwavering commitment to solutions that transcend national borders. It is within this context that international negotiations emerge as a linchpin in the global response to climate change, serving as the crucible where pathways toward a sustainable and resilient future are forged by states converging around a shared goal to which they have committed at the highest level time and again.

National parks and protected areas are considered among the most effective means of conserving natural environments and protecting biodiversity, particularly endemic and endangered species. Azerbaijan and the Caucasus are recognized internationally as a significant country of interest for biodiversity and ecosystems. The region is not only designated as one of the World Wildlife Fund’s 35 priority areas but is also recognized by Conservation International as one of the globe’s 36 biodiversity “hotspots” (a biodiversity hotspot is a biologically rich area with high diversity and a large percentage of endemic species).

UN Water projections suggest that global water demand will continue to rise at a similar rate until 2050, with an anticipated 20-30 percent increase above current levels. This increase is mainly driven by higher demands in industrial and domestic sectors. In light of water scarcity, increasing water demands, and climate change, Azerbaijan faces this challenge by re-arranging its freshwater resources management to ensure that water needs are met for social, economic, and environmental purposes. The country is going through water sector reforms and launching pilot projects to identify new sources of water and engage in better water resources management.

Although metal production/mining industries are linked to the economic benefits, their activities are significantly resource- and energy-intensive, which means that emit pollutants and greenhouse gasses in a way that adversely affects the environment. This IDD Analytic Policy Paper describes the transboundary impact on Azerbaijan caused by a smelting plant located in Yeraskh, Armenia, which is very close to Azerbaijan’s border. It then provides policy recommendations on ways to mitigate the regional environmental hazards deriving from this activity from the point of view of the international law.

Azerbaijan’s freshwater resources are limited with medium to high water stress index and huge dependency (70 percent) on upstream countries. Currently the country is in the process of rearranging its water resources management and reconsidering traditional approaches to ensure the sustainability of its freshwater resources.

Solid waste management from the different perspectives; current state policy and plans with regards to solid waste management in Azerbaijan; current and previous practices and lessons learned; different waste management business practices, challenges they face, and ways to overcome them; global practices in solid waste management.

Azerbaijan’s system of environmental education is at a pivotal point where we can capitalize on the nation’s distinctive biodiversity and cultural legacy to build an informed and involved citizenry. At the moment, academic instruction of basic theoretical concepts constitutes the majority of environmental education. This curriculum needs to be broadened and strengthened immediately if we are to address more successfully contemporary environmental issues like biodiversity loss, pollution, and climate change.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) defines “smart farming” as a farming management concept using modern technology—including sensors and actuators, geo-positioning systems, big data, and unmanned aerial vehicles— to increase the quantity and quality of agricultural products, increase production per farmer, and become a climate-resilient and resource-efficient producer.

Unfortunately, violence against women remains a common occurrence worldwide. Therefore, improving women’s access to justice is key to advancing gender equality in any country. In Azerbaijan, although some important steps have been taken in recent years, there is still much road to travel to ensure that the justice system optimally protects women and girls. This IDD analytical policy brief will provide a brief overview of the current legislation and initiatives before recommending improvements and solutions toward advancing women’s access to justice.

Population growth, economic development, and urbanization are leading to an increasing amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) and overall waste worldwide, including in Azerbaijan. The improper management of MSW poses significant public health and environmental risks. The accumulation of waste negatively impacts the soil and adjacent water bodies; it also contributes to water-borne diseases while degrading water quality. Moreover, MSW releases methane gases, which have a warming power more than 25 times greater than carbon dioxide.

One of the crucial aspects of achieving the SDGs is education. Despite documents like the Paris Agreement (Article 12) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Article 6), recognizing that “education, training, and skills development are fundamental for all Parties to achieve sustainable development in the long term,” academia is largely absent from national climate policy discussions in Azerbaijan. This IDD Analytic Policy Paper will examine how the country can more fully integrate climate action and sustainable development in the field of agriculture into university curricula. This would ultimately benefit producers and, thus, the country as a whole.

Reversing the Impact of Brain Drain in Azerbaijan

Mae Walsh-Zamanbayova 25 April 2023

This brief will ultimately argue that Azerbaijan should capitalize on the globalization of the workforce and the growing trend of remote working that has occurred in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The UN Water Conference and Azerbaijan

Hajar Huseynova 14 April 2023

After almost 50 years, the first UN Water Conference of the twenty-first century took place in New York in mid-March 2023, co-hosted by the Netherlands and Tajikistan. Although water is an essential common good and the achievement of all the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) depend directly or indirectly on water, it has not received the necessary attention on this scale for years.

This document summarizes a roundtable discussion led by Rovshan Abbasov, the Director of Khazar University’s Department of Geography and Environment. The discussion took place on 31 March 2023 at ADA University under the auspices of the Institute for Development and Diplomacy (IDD), which was hosted by IDD Director Dr. Fariz Ismailzade.

Bi-monthly Caspian Sea Dataset Overview

Elnur Safarov for CASPISNET 7 April 2023

This is the first bi-monthly update by CASPISNET under its new arrangement with IDD to present an overview of existing data sources and databases to understand Caspian Sea level variability under the ongoing impacts of changing climate.

One effective policy measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and encourage the transition to renewable energy sources is to implement a carbon tax. A carbon tax is a fee imposed on the production, distribution, and use of fossil fuels based on the amount of carbon dioxide they emit. The revenue generated from such a tax could be used to fund clean energy projects and support vulnerable communities affected by climate change. However, implementing a carbon tax in Azerbaijan would require careful consideration of the country’s specific context and needs, including the policy imperative to balance economic development and environmental protection.

Agriculture is one of the main contributors to the national economy of Azerbaijan: it accounts for 6 percent of the country’s GDP and employs about 36.5 percent of the country’s economically active population. Azerbaijan thus gives special attention to its agriculture sector to diversify economic activities and also in order to provide higher food security levels.

Unraveling Azerbaijan’s Water Crisis

Young ADA Scholars 19 January 2023

This analytic policy paper examines the current state of Azerbaijan’s water-related problems by surveying its fundamental causes, raising awareness about its broad future effects, and outlining potential policy options to mitigate risks and lessen their severity

This document summarizes a roundtable discussion with Assistant Representative to Azerbaijan of the Food and Agriculture Organization, Bariz Mehdiyev, which took place on 19 December 2022 at ADA University under the auspices of the Institute for Development and Diplomacy (IDD). The event was hosted by the Head of IDD’s Energy and Sustainable Development Program, Ahmad Humbatov. A list of participants is provided at the end of the document.

Addressing Baku’s Congestion Problem

Inara Yagubova 25 November 2022

This document summarizes a roundtable discussion that took place on 17 November 2022 at ADA University under the auspices of the Institute for Development and Diplomacy, which was hosted by IDD Director Dr. Fariz Ismailzade. A list of participants is provided at the end of the document.

Assessing the “Great Return to Karabakh”

Aybaniz Ismayilova 31 October 2022

This IDD analytic policy brief will examine specific points of Azerbaijan’s “Great Return to Karabakh” strategy and its impacts on the Karabakh IDP community as well as how well the strategy of new, modern, and smart urban settlements in the former conflict areas affects the lives of returning IDPs in Karabakh.

This analytical policy brief examines the main ecological problems of the Caspian region, the stages of cooperation between the littoral states in the environmental area, and existing interstate institutional and legal mechanisms. It also explores the geopolitical dimension of environmental issues and provides recommendations on how to increase the efficiency of the Caspian region’s environmental protection policy.

Overall, Azerbaijan’s legislative framework is compliant with the legal norms and standards provided in relevant international instruments. Nevertheless, the country has still room for the further improvement of its legislation, policies, and practices governing access to justice for children in conflict with the law. This IDD analytical policy brief contains several suggestions that would be useful to adopt as the basis for reform to eliminate inconsistencies and gaps in existing legislation in order to strengthen the rights of children and their access to justice.

Azerbaijan’s leadership has recognized that the optimization of the country’s water management system is an urgent national interest. Perhaps the most important piece of evidence in this regard is that on 15 April 2020, a special State Commission under the chairmanship of the Deputy Prime Minister was created by presidential decree to deal holistically and systematically with the management of water resources in Azerbaijan.

Bridging the Pedagogical and Employment Gap in Azerbaijan

IDD and Azerbaijan France Chamber of Commerce 1 June 2022

This policy memo results from a roundtable discussion recently held at ADA University under the auspices of the Institute for Development and Diplomacy and the Education and Human Resources and Labor Regulation Working Committees of the Azerbaijan France Chamber of Commerce. Attendees included more than 50 representatives of leading local and international companies as well as senior management officials from 10 Azerbaijani universities.

Drawing on prior Biblical references, the New Testament’s Book of Revelation depicts the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. This later came to be interpreted as a typology of divine eschatological punishment: pestilence, internecine war, famine, and the death of Hell. The four riders were “given power over one quarter of the earth to kill by the sword and hunger and death, and by the wild beasts of the earth,” the text says.

The analytic policy brief serves as an introduction to the nexus of policy issues revolving around agriculture and education in furtherance of the national priority to ensure sustainable resettlement in the context of post-liberation Karabakh, which in turn requires the right sort of economic development policies.