After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the internationalization of the war and its horizontal expansion became just a matter of time. For that particular reason, I have used the phrase “European War” in my publications on the subject matter since 2022. Forty months later, the creeping spillover of the war to the broader space is more evident than ever. In this regard, the Baltic Sea region represents the most significant concern, as it is a zone where tensions between Russia and the fragmenting Western alliance could potentially escalate into an overt confrontation.

This paper is the first joint publication of the Institute for Development and Diplomacy (IDD) at ADA University and the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC). Focusing on the geoeconomic dimension of the strategic partnership between two brotherly countries, the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Kazakhstan, this landmark publication is an outcome of the Memorandum of Understanding signed between our two institutions in October 2024.

The Port of Baku at the Azerbaijani coast of the Caspian Sea plays a key role in the Middle Corridor, a trade corridor that connects China via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus, and Turkey or the Black Sea with Europe. Given its timely construction and expansion, the Port of Baku is already now a success and, in view of further development plans, slated to become an even larger regional trade hub. A status report based on an exclusive visit to the port in April 2025.

The sources affecting civil aviation performance can be categorized into three broad areas: the natural environment, the technology domain, and human activity. The latter category divides into two subgroups: unintended harmful activity (such as professional deficiency, human error, negligence, etc.) and deliberate actions determined by malicious intent. A line of distinction between these two subgroups delimits aviation safety from aviation security and brings us to the matter of aviation terrorism.

The forced displacement of Western Azerbaijanis from their ancestral homes in parts of modern-day Armenia like Zangezur, Irevan (modern-day Yerevan), Sisian, and Gorus represents one of the most profound and underacknowledged human tragedies in the modern history of the South Caucasus. Over the course of the twentieth century, particularly during the Soviet era and the late 1980s, hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis were systematically expelled from Armenia as part of a broader campaign of ethnic cleansing driven by nationalist agendas, geopolitical maneuvering, and state-sanctioned persecution. These events, carried out in several waves, resulted in the near-complete erasure of the Azerbaijani presence from areas they had inhabited for centuries.

Azerbaijan’s strategic position at the crossroads of Europe and Asia establishes it as a key player in regional initiatives, such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Middle Corridor, and now, increasingly, the Caspian-Black Sea-EU Green Energy Corridor. This geographical advantage, coupled with a robust infrastructure that includes critical ports, railways, and highways, enables Azerbaijan to position itself as a trade and economic tie across different regions. Notable advancements like the improvements at the Port of Baku (Alat) and the renovation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway underline the country’s commitment to enhancing and streamlining its transportation network, aligning with its economic interests by opening new avenues for trade, investment, and cooperation.

In February 2025, I had the opportunity to visit Syria, which recently underwent a rapid regime change. Although this country may be considered far from the South Caucasus at first glance, it is much closer than is commonly believed. This underlines the broader point made by Svante Cornell in the Fall 2020 edition of Baku Dialogues that the “geopolitics of Eurasia and the Middle East have merged.” Today, Syria can be of great value to Azerbaijan.

From 22 to 24 April 2025, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid a state visit to China at the invitation of his counterpart Xi Jinping. This milestone event came amid heightened geopolitical and geoeconomic locomotion as well as against the background of a flurry of diplomatic activity centered on Azerbaijan. In the month of April, there were visits by the President of Iran (28 April), the OSCE Secretary General (25 April), the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission (25 April), the President of Georgia (16 April), and the President of Germany (2 April), as well as several visits by cabinet ministers and senior officials of intergovernmental organizations.

Over the past three years, geopolitical shifts in Europe and the Silk Road region have significantly impacted global supply chains, triggering heated debates on the liability of various transport routes. One of the few whose standing has increased in the past few years is the Middle Corridor multimodal transport route (Trans-Caspian International Route), coming to be seen as one of the most viable options for unhindered cargo flow in the East-West direction. As a geopolitical project, the Middle Corridor is a unique route as it is solely controlled by the participating countries themselves, without the explicit influence of major outside powers.

The second term of Donald Trump’s administration unlocked a period of a worldwide strategic uncertainty and ambiguity. The present-day focus of international attention is centering now on the evolving progression in the U.S.-EU-Russia triangle, mainly in relation to the European War (a.k.a. war in Ukraine). That “grand matter” shades other regions of the globe, which, nonetheless, remain entirely exposed to the direct and unintended effects of the unfolding dynamics. One of such areas is the Silk Road region—the geoeconomic and geocultural amalgam of Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the South Caucasus, which stretches along the ancient East-West trade route. This IDD Analytical Policy Memo evaluates how the condensing “strategic haze” at the global level and the growing polarization between major powers can affect the Silk Road region locus and forge both challenges and opportunities to the region’s actors.

An emotional scene from the 2008 Iranian television series Prophet Joseph, where Joseph is reunited with his father Jacob after years of separation, evoked a deep sense of longing in Azerbaijani father Gameddin Mammadov. Overcome with emotion, he reflected on his own sorrow and voiced his hope, saying, “One day, I will reunite with my son like this.” Gameddin Mammadov was the father of 18-year-old Ikhtiyar Mammadov, his only son, who went missing in 1993 during the First Karabakh War in the battles in the Aghdara district. Tragically, Gameddin passed away without ever fulfilling his dream of reuniting with his son.

The inauguration of Donald Trump’s second presidential administration in the United States on 20 January 2025 opened a period of turbulence, uncertainty, and unpredictability at the worldwide level. Shifting strategic paradigms, fluctuating international alliances and new situational alignments, tariff wars, cynical transactional deal offers, non-diplomatic pressures, bombastic claims, and many other factors are reflecting the tectonic rearrangement of the global security landscape.

Two months have passed since the collapse of Bashar Assad’s rule in Damascus. Syria starts progressively disappearing from the news headlines. Fewer “white noises” generated by media makes it possible to construct initial conclusions and intermediate projections related to potential developments in Syria and around it. The most fundamental conclusion is that after the fall of the ancien regime, the Syrian crisis is not over; it is just transforming into the next stage and taking different form. Therefore, the vast cast of domestic and external actors engaged in the Syrian plot reassesses their roles, goals, and objectives in the new environment that emerged after December 2024. One of the key actors in the play is Türkiye.

Azerbaijan has put forward several initiatives to be a platform for cooperation between the Global South and the Global North by increasing its interaction with developing countries. As President Ilham Aliyev stated on 20 July 2024 at the Shusha Global Media Forum: “We launch initiatives. We now actively work with developing countries in order to build bridges between the Global South and the Global North. Our advantage is that we’ve been chairing the Non-Aligned Movement for four years.” As an active supporter of multilateralism (in the past few months, Azerbaijan successfully organized COP29, took over the chairmanship of CICA, and completed its chairmanship of GUAM) that pursues an independent foreign policy posture and is located at the crossroads of flagship connectivity projects, Azerbaijan aims to strengthen its standing as a bridge between East and West.

Judging from the standpoint of its national interests as it itself understood them at the time, Russia lost this war at the moment its missiles first hit Kyiv in the early morning of 24 February 2022. Yet, paradoxically, there is no other way left for Russia except to endure and reiterate the same pattern over and over again in anticipation of a different outcome. Attacking Ukraine was a war of choice. As such, the Kremlin (theoretically) still can reassess its course and agree to negotiate a reasonable compromise whilst finding a way to claim a “triumph” for its domestic audience.

Our region is going through tectonic changes. First, we saw the liberation war of Azerbaijan over its occupied territories in Karabakh. These internationally recognized lands of Azerbaijan were occupied by Armenia for more than 30 years. The war resulted in Russian peacekeepers entering Azerbaijani sovereign lands. Then began the Russian-Ukrainian war or, as some people call it, “all-European war.” And now we see drastic escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

On 4 December 2024, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced sanctions targeting 19 top members of Georgia’s government and security establishment. This decision followed a crackdown on demonstrations and the detention or arrest of some protesters in the wake of Georgia’s contested parliamentary elections last October, in which the ruling Georgian Dream party declared victory. This episode, among many others, reflects the continuing evolution of the post-Soviet space.

The ecological crisis is one that is well-documented in its various manifestations of industrial pollution, resource depletion, and population explosion. The essential ingredients for human survival, especially water supplies and agricultural land, are being threatened across the planet by population and industrial pressures. Moreover, the widespread destruction of species and the unrelenting loss of habitat continues to accelerate. This becomes more and more a matter of concern for scholars, environmentalists, citizens actively engaged in public activities, and people who really care about the future of our planet. Many efforts are being made now to help solve environmental problems at the international level to create ecology- -oriented movements, pursue certain politics and so on.

Declining river flows exacerbate the problem for Azerbaijan and the rest of the South Caucasus. Earlier this week, UNEP released a report on the region indicating that in 2020 Armenia and Azerbaijan both experienced significant declines in river flows—plummeting 26 percent and 20 percent, respectively. Between 2000 and 2020, the annual flow of the Kura River—a key transboundary water source shared by Türkiye, Georgia, and Azerbaijan that will be discussed in greater detail below—dropped by 20 percent. Furthermore, groundwater withdrawals doubled in Armenia and increased by 400 percent, which is alarming for Azerbaijan as this signals a growing reliance on non-renewable water sources as surface water becomes scarcer. As mountain snow and glaciers continue to recede, the region’s freshwater supply is expected to go down further, underscoring the need for efficient water management strategies and cross-border data sharing.

Commercial vessels passing through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea handled an estimated 15 percent of global trade in 2023, including 25-30 percent of all container traffic. Since the Houthi attacks began, the number of vessels passing through the Suez Canal has fallen by 85 percent. Many large shipping companies are using alternative routes. As a result, according to one estimate, the freight costs of shipping from Asia to Europe rose by nearly 300 percent between October 2023 to March 2024.

The tragic death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a plane crash in May 2024 marked the beginning of a new stage in Iranian politics. A month and a half later, the election of Masud Pezeshkian, a reformist of ethnic-Azerbaijani origin, as the new president of the country gives many hopes for positive changes in the domestic and foreign policy of the Islamic Republic. However, given Iran’s sophisticated political system, headed by the Supreme Leader (Rahbar, in Persian), rapid reforms cannot yet be expected.

Policymakers around the world continue experimenting with different approaches to produce more renewable power in an attempt to achieve their obligations within the framework of the UNFCCC. On the one hand, wind and solar energy projects are on the agendas of numerous governments worldwide. On the other hand, producing renewable energy requires developing electricity infrastructure at the same pace. Consequently, electricity grids are currently evolving into a significant impediment and bottleneck to the swift implementation of renewable energy generation.

Presided over by Azerbaijan—a constitutionally secular republic whose population is nominally Muslim (the majority is Shia, the minority is Sunni)—COP29 will be the most important and inclusive diplomatic event of 2024: the flagship annual conference of the most complex multilateral undertaking in the history of humanity. Although the conference’s central issue will be climate finance, several others will also have pride of place. Of these, most in one way or another will have something to do with water. As a country suffering from water scarcity whilst also being a keystone state in one of the world’s keystone regions, the Azerbaijani presidency of COP29 is well within its rights to emphasize the importance of the sanctity of nature and, within this theological framework, of the sanctity of water and the broader obligation of humanity to be a responsible steward of the natural environment.

The 2024 summer campaign of the European War (a.k.a., the war in Ukraine) is in full swing. So far, this campaign has not brought about any dramatic changes in the strategic military situation on the ground. However, associated developments are not limited to the particular war theatre only, but outspread far beyond it. While Russian and Ukrainian troops are bleeding in fierce combat for hamlets, tracts, and groves, which are hard to locate even on a detailed map, the broader conflict’s settings are gradually evolving toward globalization. What was initially contemplated as a brief military operation under an adagio of “Kiev in three days” has been transformed into a long drawn-out war that has no political solution in sight but instead presents a growing possibility of evolving into a wide confrontation between the West and Russia and its allies. The rhetoric and activities of both Russia and the Western alliance steadily yet surely escalate, projecting their mutual antagonism to other regions of the world. The potential consequences of that collision course could be severe.

The shifting global geopolitical landscape in the last few years has prompted “middle powers“ or “keystone states“ to form regional cooperation formats and alliances, constantly adapt through reforms, and increase their mobility in general. The world economy has also experienced changes under the influence of globalization, which has shaped global trade. The onset of the present stage of the conflict over Ukraine in February 2022 has led to a growing emphasis on the strategic importance of alternative trade routes and infrastructure projects aiming to enhance interregional connectivity. In that sense, the Middle Corridor quickly became an even more viable option for connecting countries like China and landlocked Central Asia (via the South Caucasus) to the European continent and fostering international trade.

Even after wars have ended, silent killers remain hidden underground for years, waiting for an unsuspecting victim to step on them. “When a war is over, I think it’s a cowardly thing to leave the war behind you in minefields that hit women and children and the most vulnerable.” So said Paul McCartney, who has used his unique fame to draw attention to the mine problem in the world and participated in campaigns against landmines.

While Azerbaijan contributes only a small fraction (0.1 percent) to global greenhouse gas emissions, the country is experiencing significant impacts of climate change. This highlights the importance of adaptation strategies, particularly in regions with a strong agricultural sector and coastal proximity. The Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, characterized by arid and continental climate, advanced agriculture, and scarcity of water resources, is one of Azerbaijan’s most vulnerable regions to climate change.

What follows is a summary of the roundtable presentation made by Olcay Ünver at ADA University’s Institute for Development and Diplomacy (IDD) on 11 March 2024 within the framework of our Water Diplomacy Series. Ünver is a Professor of Practice at the Environmental and Resource Management Program and Senior Global Futures Scientist with the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory at Arizona State University; he also holds concurrent appointments inter alia at the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), where he is Senior Water Advisor and had served as its Vice-Chair and also led its water programs and activities (having previously led UN Water’s World Water Assessment Programme and UNESCO’s Program Office on Global Water Assessment).

In Azerbaijan, women encounter obstacles in the energy sector similar to those in other areas of the economy. If we look at women’s employment across occupations within the energy sector, most women are employed in white-collar jobs, primarily in customer service, finance, and human resources; whereas they are underrepresented in the more “technical” jobs. Besides, the proportion of those in higher positions who have decisionmaking power is still quite low, although this situation is getting better overall.

The uncertainty of the global strategic environment increases as competition between powers and alliances intensifies, projecting insecurity in many parts of the world. One of the contested zones is the Arctic, a spatial and largely uninhabited region that once was considered by much of the world as a peripheral geography. The toxic perplexity of the renewal of a zero-sum mindset, new geoeconomic circumstances, emerging technologies, and the increasingly visible effects of climate change in the circumpolar north progressively shape settings for potentially destructive scenarios. An adjacent zone, the Baltic Sea region, has historically appeared to be different. It is an area engulfing a busy and crowded water basin, which became a theatre in two world wars, and where the Euro-Atlantic community maintains direct territorial contact with Russia.

On 24 May 2024, Armenia returned four non-exclave border villages to Azerbaijan, in what was a landmark achievement in the peace process between the two South Caucasus neighbors. This marked the first time Armenia handed back territory it had captured from Azerbaijan in the early 1990s not through military coercion—as was the case during and immediately after the 2020 Second Karabakh War—but through bilateral negotiations.

Azerbaijan has just announced that, starting on 20 May 2024, cargo transportation through the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway will be restored to full capacity following the modernization process. The renovation of BTK, a crucial part of a greater plan to expand the route amid changing geopolitical and geoeconomic paradigms throughout the Silk Road region and beyond, is a testament to a commitment by the relevant states that belong to its western core to enhance connectivity. The transformation of the global security environment caused in part by the heating up of the conflict over Ukraine in February 2022 has significantly impacted the global supply chain, pushing major actors to seek alternative transit routes. The decision to modernize BTK came about as a part of Azerbaijan’s decision to turn this keystone railway line into a main artery of the Trans-Caspian Transit Route (TITR), i.e., the Middle Corridor.

One of the key features of national sovereignty is the existence of a defined state territory and borders. A defined state border is not only one of the fundamental factors for a country’s security, but it is also important for developing good relations with its neighbors by increasing trust and encouraging cooperation. Therefore, the agreement reached during the eighth meeting of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border commission at the Qazakh-Ijevan border crossing area represents a significant milestone for both countries as they embark on the border delimitation/demarcation process. This agreement involves the return of parts of four non-enclave villages of the Qazakh district to Azerbaijan, which were occupied by Armenian armed forces between 1990 and 1992.

Recently, Baku has been actively increasing interaction with the countries of Central Asia. Frequent state visits of the leaders of the countries of this region to Azerbaijan and reciprocal visits of its president, Ilham Aliyev, are but the most evident pieces of evidence of this increasingly important geopolitical and geoeconomic trend. In addition to economic aspects, Central Asia is becoming of great importance for Azerbaijan from a diplomatic point of view. Thus, Kazakhstan, being one of the closest partners for Baku in the region, today acts as a mediator in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.

A year ago, in spring 2023, the mainstream Western media was issuing overoptimistic forecasts of the major Ukrainian counteroffensive that would crush the Russian defense and achieve a breaking point, turning decisively the course of the European (a.k.a. Russo-Ukrainian) War. Those predictions did not materialize. A year later, in spring 2024, the mood is in a U-turn: the depressive expectations of the imminent collapse of Ukraine’s ability to resist mounting Russian pressure are overflowing. But it appears to me that those projections are off-target again.

If we consider most of the countries with which Azerbaijan has cultivated a special relationship, it is quite visible that the relations between those countries and France have recently improved and that the problems, when they existed, have been reduced or fixed. For example, since January 2021, the tensions between France and Türkiye have drastically decreased. The joint naval exercises, in the context of NATO, have multiplied during the last three years, with an increasingly warm wording of the French Navy. The trial of the PKK’s funding network in Paris ended with jail sentences in April 2023. The strong Turkish support for Ukraine, even before the invasion of February 2022 and the implementation of bank sanctions by Türkiye in 2024, have been appreciated. In 2022, Turkish imports from France increased by 18.8 percent and 2023 broke the absolute record of the bilateral trade.

This IDD paper summarizes the discussions that took place in a Policy Design Workshop titled “New EU policy objectives toward the EaP: How do these objectives strengthen the resilience of the societies in the EaP region” that took place on 4-5 April 2024 in Tbilisi, Georgia, under the auspices of the Institute for Development and Diplomacy’s Jean Monnet Center of Excellence in EU Studies, which aims inter alia to provide a platform for voices from three Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries (i.e., Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine) to discuss the future of the EaP framework (project number: 101085083). The event explored the EU’s new policy objectives toward the EaP by bringing together policy analysts, scholars, and young researchers from Georgia and Azerbaijan.

Ever since its humble beginnings in the nineteenth century, the oil and gas industry has become a vital part of the world. From providing heat in our houses and driving our cars to work every day to being a major contributor to the world economy, the oil and gas industry has become the backbone of modern life.

This IDD Analytical Policy Brief recommends transforming Azerbaijan’s laudable “Friends of Schoolchildren” (“Məktəblinin dostu”) pilot initiative into a comprehensive “School Counseling Program” nationwide. Recognizing the essential role of school counselors globally, the paper urges the Ministry of Science and Education to align counselor responsibilities with international standards. The way forward requires placing greater emphasis on efficient recruitment and preparation as well as greater engagement with relevant institutions and stakeholders. The IDD paper goes on to outline challenges, draw international parallels, and provide an outline of the proposed policy, concluding with recommendations for the Ministry

In recent years, the use of art to foster the peaceful resolution of disputes among conflicting parties has become increasingly significant. The transformative and unifying power of art can play an important role in establishing empathy between post-conflict parties, facilitating active listening and understanding of opposing perspectives, and collectively addressing traumas arising from a common conflict history.

Climate change is the supreme challenge of our times, poised for human civilization. Its facets are diverse: the rise of temperatures, trending natural disasters and enduring weather extremes, droughts and floods, fluctuations of the sea level and hydrographic regimes, disstressed ecosystem balances, and other aberrations. Climate change affects human health and demography, increases food and water insecurity, accelerates environmental degradation, shrinks biodiversity, and produces other similar effects.

The sequential coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in 2022-2023 supplanted the previous authorities with military juntas, headed by anti-Western-oriented officers who were determined to put an end to the regional presence and influence of France and the U.S. That prompt transformation created a permissive environment for Russia to step in. The post-Soviet comeback of Russia on the African continent has hastened since the late 2010s. A business enterprise (in fact, a state-private partnership) run by the late Yevgeny Prigozhin piloted this effort. Prigozhin’s activity involved the delivery of a compound package of security assistance and civil services to the client states in exchange for the extracted natural resources. His team consisted of mercenaries, political consultants, anthropologists, public relations specialists, and businesspersons.

The global security environment continues to erode as international polarization heightens. The accelerating strategic competition of opposing powers and alliances complicates and degrades different regional crises. While the major anxiety is fixated now on the war in Europe and the calamity in the Middle East, situations in some other parts of the world are also on the road to evolving into worst-case scenarios. One such area is the Sahel region, located in the heart of the African continent. The collapsing status quo, shifting geopolitical balances, and mounting troubles in the Sahel have no impending solutions and represent a cumulative security challenge, the resulting effects of which are likely to be felt far beyond that region and, indeed, that continent.

I remember it like it was yesterday. “Armenians? Why? What is happening?” My mother exclaimed as she expressed surprise and even shock upon hearing the news about how ethnic-Azerbaijanis were being cleansed from Armenia in 1987. Her reaction was a typical one: most Azerbaijanis had no inkling that every single last ethnic-Azerbaijani would be cleansed from their homes in Armenia in a few short years and that, soon thereafter, Armenian forces would occupy around 20 percent of Azerbaijan, ethnically cleansing every Azerbaijani from there, too. “We all lived in peace,” was a common refrain heard amongst Azerbaijanis.

Armenia currently occupies eight Azerbaijani border and exclave villages, while Azerbaijan controls one Armenian village. This IDD Working Paper examines the strategic significance and implications of the mutual return of these villages within the context of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. The paper argues that the return of these villages should be looked at within the framework of the mutual recognition of territorial integrity, rather than ongoing border delimitation discussions. It then examines innovative solutions for addressing the return of these villages within the broader framework of enhancing regional cooperation and connectivity. Lastly, it underscores the urgency of reaching an agreement on the return of these villages to facilitate sustainable peace, end regional fragmentation in the South Caucasus, ensure the region’s effective integration into the global trade system, and thus pave the way for economic prosperity.

Encouraging youth involvement in the formulation of policies and agendas should be in the interest of policymakers: doing so could result in the offering of novel concepts and creative solutions to address climate issues, as well as improve accountability and transparency. This IDD Analytical Policy Brief will overview Azerbaijan’s climate commitments and analyze survey results on how Azerbaijani youth perceive climate change and their own role in tackling the climate crisis.

Yerkrapah was established in 1993, during the First Karabakh War, as an organization of veterans. The name literally means: “defenders of the land,” a possible reference to Bachdban Hayreniats (translated as “Protectors of the Fatherland”), a secret, insurrectionist group established in Erzurum (Ottoman Empire, today Türkiye) in 1881, then dismantled by the Ottoman police in 1882, but having symbolic importance for Armenian nationalists by far superior to its short time of activity. Whatever the exact origin of its name, the organization seems to think of itself chiefly as a rival to the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF), a diaspora-backed nationalist organization and political party founded in 1890 in Tbilisi.

The most prominent political groups that currently hold seats in the EU parliament are the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists & Democrats (S&D), the pro-business Renew Europe camp, the Greens, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), and Identity and Democracy (ID). The President of the EU Parliament is Maltese conservative politician Roberta Metsola, a member of the EPP. Various polls predict that the EPP and the S&D are likely to lose some seats while ECR and ID are likely to make gains.

Azerbaijan became one of the signatories to the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, which aims to triple the world’s installed renewable energy production capacity and double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. The country has a significant technical potential for green energy evaluated at 135 GW for onshore and 157 GW for offshore sources. The economic potential of renewable energy sources is estimated at 27 GW, including 3 GW of wind energy and 23 GW of solar energy. The country is committed to substantially raising the share of renewable energy sources in overall installed electricity capacity, to reach 30 percent by 2030. In recent years, Azerbaijan has undertaken several essential steps in that direction, including the establishment of the Azerbaijan Renewable Energy Agency in September 2020 and the adoption of a law in May 2021 on the use of renewable energy sources in the production of electricity.

As the formulation of the EU’s foreign and security policy strategy is by nature intergovernmental (it also has a diplomatic service that is formally its executor, but, in practice, it can also participate—and in numerous cases, lead—in its formulation), the capacity and authority of the EU institutions, including the European External Action Service, or EEAS) is limited in this regard. Although under official treaties and documents, the EU Parliament has limited power in foreign and security policy, as the EU’s sole elected body, it tries to apply fully its limited capacity and power in foreign and security policy. Simultaneously, the EU Parliament utilizes different areas of its capacity to influence foreign and security policy as well as its execution. In short, the EU Parliament is making significant efforts to influence the Union’s foreign and security policy.

While ‘climate diplomacy’ is commonly employed in discussions related to climate negotiations, this IDD Analytical Policy Brief introduces the term ‘methane diplomacy’ to underscore the significance of addressing emissions from this specific greenhouse gas (GHG). According to scientists, more than 25 percent of the global warming that has occurred since the preindustrial era is caused by methane. Present scientific consensus indicates that one of the main sources of atmospheric methane is the fossil fuel sector, mostly as a result of leaks from the extraction of gas and oil. When burning, coal emits 75 percent more CO2 (carbon dioxide) per unit of energy than gas.

President Ilham Aliyev made a point by welcoming United Arab Emirates Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (popularly known by his initials as MBZ) to Baku on 9 January 2024, using the first official visit of its kind to emphasize that this new phase in Azerbaijan-UAE bilateral relations has risen to the level of a strategic partnership.

In 2023, relations between Azerbaijan and Iran faced their most serious test in history. The attack on Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran led to an unprecedented decline in contacts between the two neighboring countries. However, the presence of common, primarily economic, interests has always encouraged Baku and Tehran to seek common ground and overcome crises. In January 2024, I had a chance to visit Iran and converse with various local analysts; this informs the contents of this IDD Analytical Policy Brief, as do conversations with various experts and retired diplomats in Baku.

This document summarizes the roundtable discussion organized by the Institute for Development and Diplomacy at ADA University on 23 January 2024, with an introduction provided by Nazrin Baghirova and a framing set of remarks provided by Rodrigo Labardini. Participants included high-level representatives from the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resource, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Water Resources Agency, the Port of Baku, the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, scientists from the State Institute of Geology and Geophysics, the Institute of Geography, Temiz Sheher Joint Open Stock Company, and Azersu Joint open Stock Company, as well as UN Food and Agriculture Organization, the embassies of Hungary, Mexico, and Egypt, experts from the Azerbaijan Hydrometeorological Service, and water irrigation experts

In the knowledge-based world of today, one of the main driving forces of the socio-economic development of a country is learning, research, innovation as well as collaboration with other institutions and countries. Researchers Rasa Daugeliene and Rita Marcinkeviciene in their 2009 article “Brain Circulation: Theoretical Considerations” wrote that “the migration of highly-qualified persons is a natural phenomenon of this century which is called as knowledge society or knowledge economy era.”

The governments of the Latin American states generally prefer to respond to the challenge of organized crime (OC) with the use of hard power. The size of the criminal networks and the scope of their activities often require resorting to the active use of regular military forces beyond law enforcement agencies. Mexico started to use its army against cartels as early as 2006. The same practice is common in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, and Central American states. However, the “militarization” of the fight against organized crime is generating several unintended consequences.

Wars, crises, and conflicts that make the headlines, especially if they are closer to us, often shade other areas of concern taking place in other parts of the world, making them all but disappear from the radar screen. One contemporary example is Latin America, a colossal geopolitical theater caught at a crossroads between prospective opportunities and inherent blocking challenges. One such challenge is the durable and ascending trend of organized crime (OC) that defies nation-states. With a virtual non-existence of interstate conflicts and a decline of politically- motivated guerrilla movements in Latin America, organized crime wages irregular warfare targeting not only profit but, potentially, a seizure of power as well.

The conflict over Ukraine has accelerated the transformation of the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape, contributing to a shift in the global balance of power as we as to a disruption in the global food and energy supply. In this regard, more countries emerged as stronger contributors to the European continent’s energy security as the European Union, in particular, took steps to reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuels through the imposition of a sanctions and export restrictions regime against that country.

This document summarizes a roundtable discussion organized by the Institute for Development and Diplomacy at ADA University on 18 December 2023, with introductory remarks provided by IDD Research Fellow Nazrin Baghirova. Participants included high- level representatives from the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resource, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Water Resources Agency, the Word Bank, the Port of Baku, the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan State Oil and Industry University, geologists, water irrigation experts, Temiz Sheher Joint Open Stock Company, and Azersu Joint open Stock Company.

Our region is going through tectonic changes. First, we saw the liberation war of Azerbaijan over its occupied territories in Karabakh. These internationally recognized lands of Azerbaijan were occupied by Armenia for more than 30 years. The war resulted in Russian peacekeepers entering Azerbaijani sovereign lands. Then began the Russian-Ukrainian war or, as some people call it, “all-European war.” And now we see drastic escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Let us begin with a few definitions and statistical observations. A UN website dedicated to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) states (under SDG5 – Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment) that gender equality “is not only a fundamental human right, but a necessary foundation for a peaceful, prosperous, and sustainable world.” Another UN website defines gender inequality as a “social process by which people are treated differently and disadvantageously, under similar circumstances, on the basis of gender.” An EU-initiated semi-official body called the European Institute for Gender Equality describes gender inequality as a “legal, social, and cultural situation in which sex and/or gender determine different rights and dignity for women and men, which are reflected in their unequal access to or enjoyment of rights, as well as the assumption of stereotyped social and cultural roles.”

The Caspian Sea lies at the center of the Silk Road region and represents the hinge between the East (Central Asia and China), the West (the Caucasus, the Black Sea, Anatolia, and Europe), the North (the Baltic Sea), and the South (the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean). As with any large geographical feature, the Caspian Sea serves both as a connector among—and a divider between—sub-regions. These characteristics have been in place for millennia. Today, however, as does the rest of the world, the Caspian Sea faces daunting environmental challenges, including water level fluctuation, pollution, the introduction of exotic or invasive species, the loss of flora reservoirs, and eutrophication.

The end of 2023 pinned another flashpoint on the map of the forming global conflict. The crisis in the Red Sea, initially considered just an extension of the ongoing war in Gaza, suddenly acquired its own visible dimension after the Yemeni Houthi movement unleashed a maritime insurgency upon one of the world’s critical junctions. The ensuing effects of that action go far beyond the region, evolving to the level of a distinct international problem and distressing global trade and logistics.

The presidents of Iran and Russia, Ebrahim Raisi and Vladimir Putin, respectively, met on 7 December 2023 in Moscow where they held (according to the Kremlin’s spokesperson) “extremely intensive” discussions about the war in Gaza and the conflict over Ukraine as well as “multifaceted aspects of bilateral Iranian-Russian cooperation.” The leaders also discussed oil prices and other energy issues, as the meeting took place after a surprise trip by Putin to the Middle East (U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia, both on 6 December 2023).

The Caspian Sea lies at the center of the Silk Road region and represents the hinge between the East (Central Asia and China), the West (the Caucasus, the Black Sea, Anatolia, and Europe), the North (the Baltic Sea), and the South (the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean). As with any large geographical feature, the Caspian Sea serves both as a connector among—and a divider between—sub-regions. These characteristics have been in place for millennia. Today, however, as does the rest of the world, the Caspian Sea faces daunting environmental challenges, including water level fluctuation, pollution, the introduction of exotic or invasive species, the loss of flora reservoirs, and eutrophication.

The biggest part of the territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan was, as it is well known, the illegal occupation of Karabakh, which lasted three decades despite four resolutions of the UN Security Council and three decisions issued by the European Court of Human Rights calling Armenia an occupying power. However, by 1992, Armenia occupied—and is still occupying—eight villages that are not part of Karabakh. For obvious reasons, this question became more important for Azerbaijan after its victory in the Second Karabakh War and the subsequent reelection of Nikol Pashinyan in Armenia against revanchist opponents in 2021—both precipitating causes of the ongoing peace process between Baku and Yerevan.

In July 2022, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan signed a decree putting into effect the “Socio-economic Development Strategy of the Republic of Azerbaijan in 2022- 2026,” which outlines economic and social priorities for the five-year period from 2022 to 2026. This strategic plan is designed to drive sustainable growth, improve living standards, and enhance the overall well-being of the Azerbaijani people. It encompasses a range of key objectives, including further diversifying the economy, investing in infrastructure, fostering innovation, promoting social inclusion, and strengthening governance.

One of the consequences of the liberation of Karabakh has been the adoption of the Great Return program designed to revive the formerly occupied lands. The First State Program on the Great Return (November 2022) set objectives to ensure the sustainable resettlement of the retuning population to Karabakh and to establish sustainable communities in the liberated areas, integrate the local economy into na- tional and foreign value chains, improve the local ecological environment, and apply environmentally friendly technologies to economic development. These objectives comply with various UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), i.e., SDG8, SDG9, SDG11, SDG12, and SDG13.

Kahriz (also known as qanat and other terms) is a traditional resource-efficient water transport and management system used for millennia in arid and semi-arid regions. This underground water system has been employed for centuries in Iran, Azerbaijan, and other parts of the Silk Road region, the Middle East, and North Africa. It is an underground facility system created to collect aquifer and groundwater sustainably and bring it to the surface naturally, with its own flow. Traditional systems of this nature, employing an integrated approach to water resources management, were used in agricultural cultivation and aimed to achieve food self-sufficiency in arid regions. They were implemented to preserve biodiversity in ecosystems and promote balanced living in environments highly susceptible to rapid environmental changes.

The mining and metal industry is generally considered one of the world’s most economically viable industries—not only because it provides significant employment opportunities but also because it provides essential raw materials without which entire sectors of the global economy would grind to a halt. However, it is also one of the biggest contributors to global CO2 emissions, as it is one of the most energy-intensive industries, with iron and steel manufacturing classified as the largest contributor of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG). A recent study indicates that “steel products are responsible for 11 percent of all CO2 emissions” and leave a carbon footprint of between 1.4 tons per produced ton of steel (IEA figure) and 1.85 (McKinsey and the World Steel Association figure). Another recent study indicates that 0.3426 tons of CO2 is emitted per 1 ton of produced steel rebar.

The mining and metal industry is generally considered one of the world’s most economically viable industries—not only because it provides significant employment opportunities but also because it provides essential raw materials without which entire sectors of the global economy would grind to a halt. However, it is also one of the biggest contributors to global CO2 emissions, as it is one of the most energy-intensive industries, with iron and steel manufacturing classified as the largest contributor of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG). A recent study indicates that “steel products are responsible for 11 percent of all CO2 emissions” and leave a carbon footprint of between 1.4 tons per produced ton of steel (IEA figure) and 1.85 (McKinsey and the World Steel Association figure). Another recent study indicates that 0.3426 tons of CO2 is emitted per 1 ton of produced steel rebar.

This document summarizes a roundtable discussion titled “Women’s Leadership and Gender (In)Equality in Academia” that took place on 16 November 2023 under the auspices of UNESCO Participation Program at the Institute for Development and Diplomacy (IDD) of ADA University. The event was moderated by Inara Yagubova. Participants represented a wide range of Azerbaijani stakeholders including universities, research centers, non-governmental organizations, and independent experts. The roundtable was organized in view of the current situation in Azerbaijan regarding women’s underrepresentation at managerial positions in higher education institutions (HEIs) and academia overall. The roundtable aimed to focus on the promotion of gender equality and the importance of having women in senior leadership positions.

The discussions began with the introduction of the importance of the women in global food security. Hence, according to a USAID Fact Sheet, “women are responsible for half of the world’s food production, and in most developing countries they produce between 60 and 80 percent of the food. Yet, women continue to be regarded as home producers or assistants on the farm, and not as farmers and economic agents on their own merit.” This can be paired with a statement made by the FAO in 2011: “If women in rural areas had the same access to productive activities as men, agricultural and farming production would increase, and we could feed approximately 150 million more people.” According to a 2019 Asian Development Bank report, 82% of economically active women in Azerbaijan are involved in five sectors of economy: agriculture (42.10%), trade (18.20%), education (11%), healthcare (6.10%), and food processing (3.5%).

Situated in one of the most geopolitically delicate regions of the world—right in the heart of the Silk Road region (specifically, in the South Caucasus)—Azerbaijan has always been careful to build relations with its neighboring major powers. Baku is distinguished for its balanced, non-bloc approach to foreign policy, which tries to maintain an equilibrium (if not necessarily an equidistance) between ties with the West, Russia, Türkiye, and Iran, in accordance with its national interests.

This IDD paper analyzes EU-Azerbaijan relations and the EU’s “actorness” as a peace facilitator in the context of providing a summary of an Experts’ Workshop that took place on 2 November 2023 at ADA University under the auspices of the Institute for Development and Diplomacy’s Jean Monnet Center of Excellence in EU Studies, which aims inter alia to provide a platform for voices from three EaP countries (i.e., Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine) to discuss the future of the EaP framework (project number: 101085083).

The recent set of understandings reached between Baku and Tehran on reducing tensions and stabilizing this important bilateral relationship is surely a welcome development, particularly in light of more recent events in neighboring geopolitical theaters, including the Middle East. Nevertheless, various matters of bilateral concern remain open, which could have negative impacts on the sustainability of the aforementioned initiative. Among these is the thread of issues revolving around Urmia Lake, the largest wetland in Iran. This Iranian body of water continues to be in severe environmental crisis—a crisis deeply intertwined with political, economic, and demographic dynamics. The alarming decline of the lake is more than just an ecological concern; it has far-reaching social and political implications, potentially affecting the local population living on or near its shores, which includes ethnic-Azerbaijanis.

The Crimean peninsula, which for a time was largely inhabited by Tatars and under a kind of Ottoman protectorate from 1487 until its Russian annexation in 1783, is perceived to be a cultural bridge between the two nations until today. Indeed, the Crimean Tatars suffered tsarist brutalities, which reduced them to a minority, the majority becoming, by immigration and replacement, Russian by the middle of nineteenth century (this is still the case today).1 Then, the Stalinist deportation of 1944 emptied the peninsula of much of its remaining Tartar population, with some opting to return starting in 1991.

Any big war revolutionizes warfare, compelling both political leaders and commanders to critically review many aspects of military strategy, operational art, tactics, and defense technologies. The war in Ukraine—the biggest armed conflict in Europe since 1945—provides the latest striking example of the changing nature of warfare. One of its intriguing facets is the course of action in the Black Sea, where a belligerent that virtually has no naval forces embattles the numerically superior navy of its adversary, thereby shifting the strategic environment in that theatre.

This document summarizes a roundtable discussion organized by the Institute for Development and Diplomacy at ADA University on 17 October 2023 and moderated by the author on the topic of “Smart Farming for Sustainable Agriculture in Karabakh as an Exemplary Model: Needs for National Strategy and Policies.” Participants included representatives from the Ministry of Agriculture (Innovation Center), the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, the Azerbaijan Water Resources Agency; scientists and experts in agriculture, and ADA University students. The discussion began with an examination of the strategic decisions made in this area of public policy after the liberation of Karabakh. The government of Azerbaijan made a ten year budget allocation of several billions of dollars into the revival of the largely destroyed Karabakh within the program of the ‘Great Return.”

The mining and metal industry is generally considered one of the world’s most economically viable industries—not only because it provides significant employment opportunities but also because it provides essential raw materials without which entire sectors of the global economy would grind to a halt. However, it is also one of the biggest contributors to global CO2 emissions, as it is one of the most energy-intensive industries, with iron and steel manufacturing classified as the largest contributor of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG). A recent study indicates that “steel products are responsible for 11 percent of all CO2 emissions” and leave a carbon footprint of between 1.4 tons per produced ton of steel (IEA figure) and 1.85 (McKinsey and the World Steel Association figure).

In the face of accelerating climate change, the world is approaching a critical juncture at which greater coordinated action will need to be seen as a global imperative. The impact of rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and increasingly shifting climate patterns demand an unwavering commitment to solutions that transcend national borders. It is within this context that international negotiations emerge as a linchpin in the global response to climate change, serving as the crucible where pathways toward a sustainable and resilient future are forged by states converging around a shared goal to which they have committed at the highest level time and again.

National parks and protected areas are considered among the most effective means of conserving natural environments and protecting biodiversity, particularly endemic and endangered species. Azerbaijan and the Caucasus are recognized internationally as a significant country of interest for biodiversity and ecosystems. The region is not only designated as one of the World Wildlife Fund’s 35 priority areas but is also recognized by Conservation International as one of the globe’s 36 biodiversity “hotspots” (a biodiversity hotspot is a biologically rich area with high diversity and a large percentage of endemic species).

UN Water projections suggest that global water demand will continue to rise at a similar rate until 2050, with an anticipated 20-30 percent increase above current levels. This increase is mainly driven by higher demands in industrial and domestic sectors. In light of water scarcity, increasing water demands, and climate change, Azerbaijan faces this challenge by re-arranging its freshwater resources management to ensure that water needs are met for social, economic, and environmental purposes. The country is going through water sector reforms and launching pilot projects to identify new sources of water and engage in better water resources management.

Following the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, Western states responded with a series of severe sanctions and export restrictions aimed at undermining Russia’s economic capacity to fund the war. These sanctions primarily focused on Russia’s vital oil and gas industry, which serves as a major revenue source. Sanctions were also targeted at other sectors, like engineering, construction, manufacturing, and transportation. These measures effectively restricted Russia’s ability to import various products essential for its defense industry, including electrical and transportation equipment, technological components, machinery, and vehicle parts.

The polite, albeit often hidden, cooperation of the two Western-oriented countries of the Eastern Mediterranean continued for decades. The Turkish government did not sever its diplomatic relations after the Six Day War (1967) or the Yom Kippur War (1973), in spite of its dependence on Arab oil. Meanwhile, most of the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (another key space for the projection of Israeli strategic depth) ended their diplomatic relations with Israel.

The West’s political and material support for Ukraine gives the impression that Russia faces them on its own. But that is a misconception. The advent of a continental, Russia-centered ad hoc coalition involved in the war in Ukraine is a sobering reality. Given its composition, I tentatively call it “BRINK” (Belarus, Russia, Iran, and North Korea). This geopolitical grouping is knit together by the akin nature of regimes, coincident interests, revisionist aspirations, a shared perception of their competitors (seen as adversaries), and other common denominators

Although metal production/mining industries are linked to the economic benefits, their activities are significantly resource- and energy-intensive, which means that emit pollutants and greenhouse gasses in a way that adversely affects the environment. This IDD Analytic Policy Paper describes the transboundary impact on Azerbaijan caused by a smelting plant located in Yeraskh, Armenia, which is very close to Azerbaijan’s border. It then provides policy recommendations on ways to mitigate the regional environmental hazards deriving from this activity from the point of view of the international law.

All C5+1 consultations—from the format’s establishment in 2015 until September 2023—had taken place at or below the ministerial level, including working groups touching upon economy, energy, environment, and security issues. Hence, holding the meeting with all its Heads of State, even if on the sidelines of a multilateral event, is—in and of itself—an important milestone in the history of interaction between the parties.

It is worth mentioning that all successive governments of Afghanistan—from the very beginning of the establishment of relations with Azerbaijan—have expressed their support to Baku’s policy regarding the conflict over Karabakh. For instance, in September 2020, when the Second Karabakh War began, Afghanistan’s government unequivocally demanded “the end of the occupation in Nagorno-Karabakh” and supported “the efforts by the people and government of Azerbaijan and other nations of the world in this regard.”

Azerbaijan’s freshwater resources are limited with medium to high water stress index and huge dependency (70 percent) on upstream countries. Currently the country is in the process of rearranging its water resources management and reconsidering traditional approaches to ensure the sustainability of its freshwater resources.

This document summarizes a roundtable discussion organized by the Institute for Development and Diplomacy on 14 September 2023 concerning the environmental impact on Azerbaijan of the operations of a metal smelting plant located in the town of Yeraskh in the Armenian province of Ararat. Participants included representatives from the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Water Resources Agency; scientists and experts in environmental law, members of civil society, and ADA University students also took part.

In the past several years, a growing number of political addresses, scholarly articles, and policy papers have referred to the vast opportunities for the Middle Corridor to transport goods and energy between East and West via the Silk Road region, including previous IDD Analytical Policy Papers and essays appearing in issues of Baku Dialogues. Much of this material has correctly identified this corridor as an alternative to Russiadominated energy sources (oil and gas), trade routes, and digital highways

Solid waste management from the different perspectives; current state policy and plans with regards to solid waste management in Azerbaijan; current and previous practices and lessons learned; different waste management business practices, challenges they face, and ways to overcome them; global practices in solid waste management.

Azerbaijan’s system of environmental education is at a pivotal point where we can capitalize on the nation’s distinctive biodiversity and cultural legacy to build an informed and involved citizenry. At the moment, academic instruction of basic theoretical concepts constitutes the majority of environmental education. This curriculum needs to be broadened and strengthened immediately if we are to address more successfully contemporary environmental issues like biodiversity loss, pollution, and climate change.

Despite earlier optimism, the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks are still ongoing and may be at a standstill. One of the stumbling blocks on the path to an agreement on a peace treaty is Yerevan’s unwillingness to explicitly recognize, in writing, Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity (although Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan has made oral pronouncements to that effect several times). However, even this step—written recognition—should not be understood to be sufficient.

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Karabakh resulted in a massive humanitarian catastrophe in the region. Azerbaijan has become one of the largest refugee and IDP hosting countries in the world. During the last 30 years of occupation, refugees and IDPs received humanitarian aid from foreign donors, charity organizations, and the Azerbaijani government. When the Second Karabakh War ended the Armenian occupation, it opened new opportunities for full restoration of IDP's earlier hometowns and return to liberated areas.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive develops slowly and painfully. Thus far, not much progress is in sight (apart from limited tactical gains), and the Russian forces are mostly holding their ground. Still, there are at least three more months of active operations ahead before the arrival of the autumn season. This raises the possibility that the situation may shift in Ukraine’s favor through escalatory scenarios.

Priorities, challenges, and perspectives of cultural diplomacy of Azerbaijan; bilateral and multilateral cultural diplomacy; the role of non-state actors in cultural diplomacy; communication and media relations in cultural diplomacy; elaboration of a concept paper on Azerbaijan’s foreign cultural policy and its implementation mechanisms.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) defines “smart farming” as a farming management concept using modern technology—including sensors and actuators, geo-positioning systems, big data, and unmanned aerial vehicles— to increase the quantity and quality of agricultural products, increase production per farmer, and become a climate-resilient and resource-efficient producer.

The ongoing conflict over Ukraine is accelerating divisions within what Westerners often call the "international community." Among its myriad manifestations is the worrisome prevalence of what social scientists term "false universalism." In this case, it is the tendency to present as global in scale and scope something that is in fact predominantly Western or Western led. Hence, the current political and journalistic rhetoric giving the public impression that the entire world has effectually joined the West in imposing sanctions and export restrictions against Russia. One example is the way that the outcome of a series of almost entirely symbolic votes in the UN General Assembly is presented discursively in the West. But in real life, votes on symbolic, non-binding resolutions at the UN are rarely indicative of a given state's actual foreign policy.

this IDD Analytical Policy Brief examines the course of action of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Beyond that, it focuses on the Wagner turmoil and its pending impact on Russia’s internal stability and the war effort. In addition, the paper addresses broader politico-military aspects of the European War as these impact upon global security.

The enduring European War continues to emit insecurity to its whole periphery. There are few other places on the globe where that suggestion appears so evident than in the Greater Caspian region, which constitutes a part of the Silk Road region (a.k.a. Eurasia). One of the particular effects of the war became the advent of an alliance of strategic convenience between Russia and Iran. Beyond economic and political aspects, that alliance is attaining a clear and amplifying military dimension.

Unfortunately, violence against women remains a common occurrence worldwide. Therefore, improving women’s access to justice is key to advancing gender equality in any country. In Azerbaijan, although some important steps have been taken in recent years, there is still much road to travel to ensure that the justice system optimally protects women and girls. This IDD analytical policy brief will provide a brief overview of the current legislation and initiatives before recommending improvements and solutions toward advancing women’s access to justice.

arly June, re-elected Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made major personnel changes in the cabinet. One of the key positions, the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs, was awarded to Hakan Fidan, who had previously headed the National Intelligence Organization (MİT) of Türkiye for more than 13 years.

The effects of the ongoing European War continue redesigning the geo-economic map of Eurasia at a fast pace, including the regions placed far away from the Russia-Ukraine battlefield. One of the most significant outcomes becomes the cessation of the previously operational supply chains, and the subsequent shift of their functionality towards newly emerging priority routes and infrastructure. By the trick of geography, most of those contemplated routes run through or by the Greater Caspian Sea region. Such developments provide the transit countries and the end users a range of new opportunities and benefits—but also a new set of risks and challenges.

Population growth, economic development, and urbanization are leading to an increasing amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) and overall waste worldwide, including in Azerbaijan. The improper management of MSW poses significant public health and environmental risks. The accumulation of waste negatively impacts the soil and adjacent water bodies; it also contributes to water-borne diseases while degrading water quality. Moreover, MSW releases methane gases, which have a warming power more than 25 times greater than carbon dioxide.

After the energy crisis in Europe in 2022, the transition to clean and sustainable energy has become more urgent than ever. After the onset of the present stage in the Russia-Ukraine war on 24 February 2022, the number of economic sanctions against Russia imposed by the West has increased dramatically. As a result, Russia— the largest energy partner of the European Union until 2022—reduced the volume of energy exports to the EU. In response to the crisis in the European energy market, which predates the war and has been accelerated by it, the EU Commission presented its REPowerEU Plan.

Troubling support for Armenian terrorism has been ongoing since the end of nineteenth century. Since 1991, it has enjoyed various forms of justification and glorification by the Armenian state itself, including in two noteworthy but contradictory instances that have taken place very recently (April and May 2023)—i.e., in the midst of the active phase in the peace negotiations between Yerevan and Baku

The first quarterly scientific brief by CASPISNET under its new arrangement with the Institute for Development and Diplomacy (IDD).

This IDD Analytical Policy Brief evaluates the current operations, Ukraine’s counter-offensive preparations (including its strategic disinformation campaign), Russia’s adaptation to the war, and the strategic risks for each side in case of failure.

The role of natural gas in energy transition has long been debated. Although a fossil fuel, it emits significantly less carbon dioxide and air pollutants than coal and oil. In this regard, many consider it as an intermediate source of energy helping to shift from the world of hydrocarbons to renewables.

Azerbaijan has considerable potential in green energy, with proved offshore wind potential of 157 gigawatts, onshore wind and solar potential of 27 gigawatts, and up to 10 gigawatts of wind and solar potential in the liberated territories. The Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic also has considerable potential, with negotiations underway to build a 500-megawatt solar power station. Azerbaijan is currently executing two investment projects in solar and wind power generation with Masdar and ACWA power, totaling 470 megawatts, and another project with BP for 240 megawatts in the Jabrayil district.

This policy brief aims to introduce a new concept of the transport backbone of the Silk Road region and to identify the benefits and limitations of the INSTC project for regional connectivity.

One of the crucial aspects of achieving the SDGs is education. Despite documents like the Paris Agreement (Article 12) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Article 6), recognizing that “education, training, and skills development are fundamental for all Parties to achieve sustainable development in the long term,” academia is largely absent from national climate policy discussions in Azerbaijan. This IDD Analytic Policy Paper will examine how the country can more fully integrate climate action and sustainable development in the field of agriculture into university curricula. This would ultimately benefit producers and, thus, the country as a whole.

This document summarizes an off-the-record roundtable discussion featuring Ma Chi, Economic and Commercial Counsellor at the embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Azerbaijan. Other participants included senior representatives from leading Azerbaijani companies (public and private), relevant government ministries, and leading Baku-based university-affiliated scholars and think tank analysts. The discussion took place on 27 April 2023 at ADA University under the auspices of the Institute for Development and Diplomacy (IDD), and was hosted by IDD’s Director for Policy Research, Analysis, and Publications Damjan Krnjević Mišković.

Unpredictability is one of the hallmarks of the Middle East. States that yesterday were on the verge of war are nowadays moving towards reconciliation. The tendency for rapprochement that has emerged in recent years between several countries, primarily between Israel and the Arab world, is becoming even more apparent today. This is especially true against the backdrop of a thaw in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the Syrian breakthrough after years of isolation, and Türkiye’s foreign policy achievements. At the same time, hot spots in the Middle East, starting with the unresolved Palestinian-Israeli issue, periodically remind us of themselves. In addition, due to the huge number of internal contradictions and the socio-political and economic crisis, the regional situation remains quite explosive, as, for example, recent events in Sudan have shown

This analytic policy brief will examine the underlying reasons for what we call the mismatch between the labor market and education outputs in Azerbaijan. It will then suggest possible ways to help businesses overcome this challenge.

Working Paper represents a first attempt to grasp the ascending global role of India, as well as its geopolitical mindset, ambitions, and interests, with particular emphasis on security concerns. More specifically, this document focuses on explaining how the need to maintain connectivity to the world drives India’s alliance-building strategy, including the logic and rationales behind the developing Indian-Armenian rapprochement.

This brief will ultimately argue that Azerbaijan should capitalize on the globalization of the workforce and the growing trend of remote working that has occurred in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The purpose of this IDD Analytical Policy Brief is to examine the state of the field, to highlight the existing and emerging trends and geographic regions of concern, and to place the phenomenon of terrorism into a broader context.

After almost 50 years, the first UN Water Conference of the twenty-first century took place in New York in mid-March 2023, co-hosted by the Netherlands and Tajikistan. Although water is an essential common good and the achievement of all the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) depend directly or indirectly on water, it has not received the necessary attention on this scale for years.

This document summarizes a roundtable discussion led by Rovshan Abbasov, the Director of Khazar University’s Department of Geography and Environment. The discussion took place on 31 March 2023 at ADA University under the auspices of the Institute for Development and Diplomacy (IDD), which was hosted by IDD Director Dr. Fariz Ismailzade.

This is the first bi-monthly update by CASPISNET under its new arrangement with IDD to present an overview of existing data sources and databases to understand Caspian Sea level variability under the ongoing impacts of changing climate.

On 17 March 2023 the International Criminal Court (ICC) dropped what was widely seen as a bombshell announcement: an arrest warrant against Russian president Vladimir Putin for war crimes Russian forces have allegedly committed in Ukraine. On 24 March 2023, a decision of the Constitutional Court of Armenia cleared the domestic obstacles for Armenia’s intent to join the Rome Statute of the ICC. However, these two events are only related insofar as the arrest warrants against Putin et. al. may well politically impede the ratification of the Rome Statute by Armenia.

This book is being published on the first anniversary of the end of the Second Karabakh War. The book delivers rigorously-crafted chapters examining a wide spectrum of topics including but not limited to, strategic implications of liberation of Karabakh, reconciliation of Azerbaijanis and Armenians, and rebuilding of post-conflict areas. The aim is to gather diverse perspectives and fresh ideas from ADA faculty members as well as others affiliated with the University that may be useful for readers in conceptualizing the regional updates.

One effective policy measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and encourage the transition to renewable energy sources is to implement a carbon tax. A carbon tax is a fee imposed on the production, distribution, and use of fossil fuels based on the amount of carbon dioxide they emit. The revenue generated from such a tax could be used to fund clean energy projects and support vulnerable communities affected by climate change. However, implementing a carbon tax in Azerbaijan would require careful consideration of the country’s specific context and needs, including the policy imperative to balance economic development and environmental protection.

This IDD Analytical Policy Brief provides a retrospective assessment of the past winter campaign in Ukraine whilst also focusing on the details of the ongoing preparations by both sides for the approaching decisive standoff. This essay also examines some of the broader effects of what is best described as the European War.

This paper analyzes the results of this Munich meeting in light of the latest period of heightened antiAzerbaijani rhetoric in Yerevan and the ongoing protests of Azerbaijani eco-activists along the Lachin Corridor.

The plight of the ethnic-Azerbaijanis expelled from the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic during the last years of the USSR was never forgotten by the Republic of Azerbaijan. But since the end of 2022, this issue has taken on new importance in official speeches. This is particularly visible in the visit of the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, to the administrative building of the Western Azerbaijan Community in December 2022—his second visit since its unveiling in 2010.

This document summarizes a roundtable discussion with Yermolai Solzhenitsyn, a Shanghai-based senior partner at McKinsey & Company who specializes in the metals, mining, and energy industry. The discussion took place on 23 February 2023 at ADA University under the auspices of the Institute for Development and Diplomacy (IDD), in partnership with PASHA Holding, and hosted by Prof. Damjan Krnjević Mišković, IDD’s Director for Policy Research, Analysis, and Publications. More than 40 high-level individuals from government, industry, and think tanks participated in this off-therecord, invitation-only event.

Agriculture is one of the main contributors to the national economy of Azerbaijan: it accounts for 6 percent of the country’s GDP and employs about 36.5 percent of the country’s economically active population. Azerbaijan thus gives special attention to its agriculture sector to diversify economic activities and also in order to provide higher food security levels.

Azerbaijan has a solid and strong relationship with most of the 22 countries belonging to the Arab world. Although the roots of these ties can be traced back to the Arab conquest of Persia and the South Caucasus by the Abbasid Caliphate in the eighth century, the contemporary history of relations between the Arab and Muslim worlds, on the one hand, and Azerbaijan, on the other, began with the restoration of the latter’s independence in 1991. At that time, the country rapidly joined various international formats, including those that self-identified as belonging to the Muslim world.

Russia’s focus on the Ukraine War (and the resulting West-led sanctions regime) has created a unique opportunity for the five core Central Asian states. These countries are seeking routes to advance their respective choices to pursue economic diversification. The EU, which has cut trade relations in virtually all spheres with Russia, has been keen to fill this vacuum by enhancing trade with the five core Central Asian states.

This IDD Analytical Policy Paper assesses the geo-strategic importance of the Zangezur Corridor for enhancing regional and global trade and concludes with an assessment as to the likelihood of its implementation.

This analytic policy brief will examine Azerbaijani and EU relations from the water perspective and explore how the country’s burgeoning partnership with the EU is shaping the issue of water cooperation in the regional context.

Two recent events have further heightened scrutiny in Iran’s decent into domestic turbulence, which is now approaching its five-month anniversary. The first was a fatal act of terror against the embassy of Azerbaijan in the Islamic Republic of Iran committed on the morning of 27 January 2023; the second, a drone strike against Iranian state facilities in Isfahan, took place nearly two days later, late in the night of 28 January 2023.

This analytical policy brief provides an account of the military developments of the idle winter campaign and analyses trends and factors influencing the expected return of active warfare. Particular emphasis is placed on the parallel preparations, accelerated by both belligerents, in order to break the current stalemate in their own favor.

This analytic policy paper examines the current state of Azerbaijan’s water-related problems by surveying its fundamental causes, raising awareness about its broad future effects, and outlining potential policy options to mitigate risks and lessen their severity

In many ways, the idea of establishing the Middle Corridor began to take practical shape with the gradual transformation of Azerbaijan into an international energy hub over the past three decades. This began with the December 1994 signing of the Contract of the Century and the oil boom that came in its wake; broadened and deepened with the discovery of vast quantities of natural gas and their subsequent export via the Southern Gas Corridor; and is now entering its next stage by the strategic endeavor to diversity the sources of Baku’s energy exports to include electricity, wind and solar, and even hydrogen, as outlined in the July 2022 Memorandum of Understanding signed between Azerbaijan and the European Union.

This document summarizes a roundtable discussion with Assistant Representative to Azerbaijan of the Food and Agriculture Organization, Bariz Mehdiyev, which took place on 19 December 2022 at ADA University under the auspices of the Institute for Development and Diplomacy (IDD). The event was hosted by the Head of IDD’s Energy and Sustainable Development Program, Ahmad Humbatov. A list of participants is provided at the end of the document.

This IDD analytic policy brief will thus examine the main aspects of the role of the Türkiye in the South Caucasus in the post-Second Karabakh War period and analyze different possible scenarios with regards to the evolution of Türkiye’s foreign policy in the South Caucasus.

Relations between China and the most active countries that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are evolving in new directions, as Beijing eyes opportunities to fill the gap that is emerging in the region in light of America’s waning influence and interest. Although the rapprochement between China and the GCC countries, particularly the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), is a source of concern for the United States, which still seeks to preserve its role as the region’s leading security patron, it is unlikely that Beijing’s influence in the critically important Gulf region will soon decline strategically as a result.

The objective of this IDD working paper is to identify the probable malicious actors in the region, evaluate their operational capabilities and tactical solutions, and assess the potential risks and threats in the maritime domain.

The visit of the President of Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and Serbia in September 2022 was explicitly devoted to deepening economic relations with these three Western Balkan states. It came in the wake of a visit by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to Türkiye in January 2022 during which he extended an invitation to his Turkish counterpart to come to Belgrade and, presumably, other regional capitals. This IDD analytic policy brief takes a look back into history, assesses the political state of play, examines trade and investment trends, and concludes with a suggestion or two on how the European Union and Türkiye can work together to advance shared priorities.

On 15-16 November 2022, Indonesia hosted the G20 summit, which was significantly different from previous events of this kind. For the first time since 2008, Russia was represented only at the level of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The war in Ukraine dominated the sidelines of the summit and was reflected in the final communiqué, which criticizes Russia’s actions rather harshly. Along with this, the most important negotiations took place on the eve of the summit: in particular, bilateral talks between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which, for example, had a positive impact on global financial markets. Although the G20 is often criticized for its inability to seriously respond to global challenges and threats, the outcome of the Bali summit will have important consequences for various regions of the world, including the South Caucasus. This IDD analytical policy brief will examine the foregoing in that context.

Located at a key geopolitical and geo-economic point in the Silk Road region, Azerbaijan has been a main initiator in the development of technologically advanced and economically viable trans-border logistics and transit services. This is largely due to Baku’s embrace of a wide spectrum of digitalization and innovation initiatives within the broad-based connectivity framework of the Middle Corridor Initiative (MCI) and other similar such projects. This IDD analytical policy brief will examine various aspects of this important topic as it relates to MCI.

Iran and Armenia have enhanced their energy cooperation. On the sidelines of the official visit of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to Iran on 1 November 2022, the two countries agreed to upgrade their existing gas-for-electricity barter deal, whereby Iran exports natural gas to Armenia in return for electricity supplied by Armenia.

This document summarizes a roundtable discussion that took place on 17 November 2022 at ADA University under the auspices of the Institute for Development and Diplomacy, which was hosted by IDD Director Dr. Fariz Ismailzade. A list of participants is provided at the end of the document.

This IDD analytic policy brief assesses the shifting course of the war in the past two months, measures potential scenarios for the upcoming winter period, and evaluates the war’s increasing influence on Russia’s domestic political agenda, with an emphasis on the role of non-systemic and quasi-systemic militarized actors empowered by the war.

This IDD Working Paper examines the role of the United States in the postwar peace negotiations process. Although both the United States and the EU were perceived as withdrawing from the region in the immediate wake of Second Karabakh War—with Russia gaining a seeming monopoly of influence over regional security issues (and Türkiye gaining a small but significant foothold)—they have increased their respective engagements in the South Caucasus in the past year or so. This is partly due to both the quality and scope of Moscow’s disengagement given its strategic distraction caused by the onset of Russia’s own war in the Ukraine theater.

Over the past several months, Azerbaijan has taken a number of steps to further anchor its position as one of the most reliable non-Western suppliers of hydrocarbons to the European Union and the Western Balkans, in accordance with a deepening strategic energy partnership between Baku and Brussels. Perhaps the most illustrative recent example of how this is playing out is the set of outcomes achieved during Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s two-day official visit to Sofia, Bulgaria, that took place from 30 September to 1 October 2022.

On 6 November 2022, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry called on— successfully, as it turns out—the participants of the COP-27 climate summit in Sharm El Sheikh “to discuss the pressing issue of funding arrangements needed to deal with existing gaps, responding to ‘loss and damage.’” In this way, the strategic agenda of COP-27 came into direct conceptual contact with one of the main objectives advanced by the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) from the onset of Azerbaijan’s chairmanship of the Organization.

This IDD analytic policy brief is published in the immediate aftermath of the 31 October 2022 trilateral summit in Sochi involving President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia, and President Vladimir Putin of Russia. The signed outcome document of this meeting makes neither mention of nor allusion to the issue of the autonomy or ‘status’ of the ethnic-Armenian population of the Karabakh region of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

This IDD analytic policy brief will examine specific points of Azerbaijan’s “Great Return to Karabakh” strategy and its impacts on the Karabakh IDP community as well as how well the strategy of new, modern, and smart urban settlements in the former conflict areas affects the lives of returning IDPs in Karabakh.

On 27 September 2020, a new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia erupted over Karabakh, which lasted 44 days and was brought to an end on 10 November 2020 thanks to Russian mediation. The end of the war resulted in new regional circumstances and a new reality on the ground. This became the backdrop against which talks on a peace treaty to end a decades-long enmity between Armenia and Azerbaijan is being conducted. To this can be added the new geopolitical situation that has arisen since the onset of the latest Russia-Ukraine war, which has seen the West provide unprecedented support to Kyiv, which has had reverberations in the South Caucasus and elsewhere in the Silk Road region. As a result, both Armenia and Azerbaijan have needed to change their respective security paradigms, creating challenges but also opportunities for intensified peace negotiations.

As the war in Ukraine escalates and becomes more violent, global food and energy recession risks continue to increase, in turn further heightening the likelihood of a global economic recession. The new full-scale war revealed particular vulnerabilities of the Western block of countries, particularly on energy and supply chain management, due to their imposition of sanctions and export restrictions on Russia. Hence, new security challenges in Europe have forced the Western block of countries to explore new and safer trade routes while avoiding Russian territory.

This analytical policy brief examines the main ecological problems of the Caspian region, the stages of cooperation between the littoral states in the environmental area, and existing interstate institutional and legal mechanisms. It also explores the geopolitical dimension of environmental issues and provides recommendations on how to increase the efficiency of the Caspian region’s environmental protection policy.

This IDD analytic policy brief seeks to provide informed guidance to those wishing to assess the likelihood of Armenia accepting the peace dividend on offer by Azerbaijan in the time ahead. It is published within the context of the second anniversary of the waging of the Second Karabakh War, a fortnight after brief yet deadly military clashes along the as-yet non-delineated state border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and in the immediate aftermath of a meeting in Geneva between the foreign ministers of the two states that is portrayed, rightly, as the start of substantive negotiations on an omnibus peace treaty.

Terrorism remains an obstacle to peace in the South Caucasus. Despite the consistent willingness of Azerbaijan and a series of positive signs given by Armenia since the end of the Second Karabakh War, a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan remains elusive. So does the normalization of relations between Ankara and Yerevan. Much of the responsibility for this suboptimal state of affairs lies with extremist elements of Armenian society operating both within the country and in the diaspora.

Geopolitical shift in the South Caucasus and the effect of the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Armenia on these. The reactions of regional powers like Russia and Iran on Armenia’s new foreign policy course. How will Pelosi’s visit change/affect the foreign policy of Armenia in the nearest future?

The President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, participated as a guest at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which took place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on 15-16 September 2022. In recent years, cooperation with the SCO has become very important for Baku in the context of enhancing trade and transport links between Europe and Asia, where pretty much all relevant actors envision, in one way or another, Azerbaijan playing a key connectivity role.

Welcome everyone and let me introduce our keynote speaker today. For the past two years, we have had a lot of webinars and online sessions. But now people are back to their daily routine, and somehow webinars are again becoming exciting as something we have missed from the pandemic period.

Recent geopolitical developments and a rapidly changing situation in its neighborhood has led Azerbaijan to adjust its foreign policy strategy with Central Asian states in general and with Kazakhstan in particular. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s groundbreaking visit to Baku on 24 August 2022 represents the capstone of this policy shift and a breakthrough in the bilateral relationship.

The onset of the present stage of the conflict over Ukraine has accelerated large-scale geopolitical movements. Many countries, including most of the post-Soviet states belonging to the Silk Road region, are changing their foreign policy guidelines and strengthening relations with long-standing allies and partners. These include Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan.

While the negotiations between Azerbaijan and the European Union on concluding a new comprehensive partnership agreement are underway, the two sides have recently reached another important milestone in the field of energy cooperation.

“Why does the European Union need Azerbaijan?” This is the question that Bulgaria’s ambassador to Azerbaijan posed at an event marking Europe Day held at ADA University in May 2022.

The ancient chroniclers lyrically called Central Asia a “Box of Gems” buried in the sands of a desert. Indeed, this landlocked region, placed in the heart of Eurasia (the Silk Road region), far from any ocean shores, is abundant in natural resources of all kinds, from fossil fuel and rare-earth metals to fertile agrarian lands.

Azerbaijan and Iran are actively building up economic cooperation, both bilaterally and within the framework of international projects. Having common religious, historical, cultural ties, to say nothing of a common border spanning 765 kilometers, the two neighboring states have a chance to transmute an economic relationship— especially in the sphere of natural gas—into a more stable and predictable political one.

Overall, Azerbaijan’s legislative framework is compliant with the legal norms and standards provided in relevant international instruments. Nevertheless, the country has still room for the further improvement of its legislation, policies, and practices governing access to justice for children in conflict with the law. This IDD analytical policy brief contains several suggestions that would be useful to adopt as the basis for reform to eliminate inconsistencies and gaps in existing legislation in order to strengthen the rights of children and their access to justice.

Azerbaijan’s leadership has recognized that the optimization of the country’s water management system is an urgent national interest. Perhaps the most important piece of evidence in this regard is that on 15 April 2020, a special State Commission under the chairmanship of the Deputy Prime Minister was created by presidential decree to deal holistically and systematically with the management of water resources in Azerbaijan.

The conflict over Ukraine put Turkey in a very difficult place, since it is known to have built friendly relations with both Moscow and Kyiv. At the same time, against all odds, Ankara turned out to be a key mediator (notwithstanding the fact that it is a NATO member state), if not the only one, in the quest to reduce tensions in the unprecedented confrontation between Russia and the West.

Two Forbes headlines three months apart: “Will Russia Invade Ukraine? (12 February 2022) and “Will the Ukrainian Army Invade Russia? (16 May 2022). And today, on 3 June 2022, the European (a.k.a. the Russo-Ukrainian) war turned one hundred days old. Within this period, its trajectory has been remarkable: from a botched blitzkrieg to an evident stalemate. At the moment, Russia continues pressing but cannot defeat Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine fights back but cannot harm Russia enough to force it to turn to a political solution.

This policy memo results from a roundtable discussion recently held at ADA University under the auspices of the Institute for Development and Diplomacy and the Education and Human Resources and Labor Regulation Working Committees of the Azerbaijan France Chamber of Commerce. Attendees included more than 50 representatives of leading local and international companies as well as senior management officials from 10 Azerbaijani universities.

Drawing on prior Biblical references, the New Testament’s Book of Revelation depicts the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. This later came to be interpreted as a typology of divine eschatological punishment: pestilence, internecine war, famine, and the death of Hell. The four riders were “given power over one quarter of the earth to kill by the sword and hunger and death, and by the wild beasts of the earth,” the text says.

The analytic policy brief serves as an introduction to the nexus of policy issues revolving around agriculture and education in furtherance of the national priority to ensure sustainable resettlement in the context of post-liberation Karabakh, which in turn requires the right sort of economic development policies.

In March 2022, Israel hosted the Negev Summit, an unprecedented diplomatic conference under the aegis of Foreign Minister Yair Lapid. Participants included U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and the foreign ministers of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Morocco, and Bahrain. This ministerial conference represents the latest step of rapprochement between Israel and the Arab world. Although it has not reached the point of no return, the unfolding process is opening up new prospects for the Middle East and for the many countries beyond the region that hold close ties with that part of the world, including those located in the South Caucasus.

Chairman Mao is reputed to have described his foreign policy posture with a metaphor: “when the tigers fight in the valley, the wise monkey sits on the hill and watches how it ends.” This dictum comes to mind while assessing the strategy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) towards unfolding developments in the conflict over Ukraine, which is in fact turning out to be European war, given its magnitude and the parties involved, directly or not. Indeed, while the major players in this drama—the United States (which is China’s global competitor), the EU, and Russia—remain overwhelmingly preoccupied by the crisis, the officially neutral Beijing can, and most likely will, try to use this opportunity to bolster its position and advance its interests.

The inaugural Chief of imperial Germany’s Great General Staff, General Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, wrote in Über Strategie (1871) that “no plan of operations reaches with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main force.” This explicit warning has found its proof once again on the Ukrainian battlefield, where Russian combat operations, which they call a “special military operation,” faltered from its beginning and appears to be far from achieving what have been reported as its strategic goals and objectives.

This analytic brief is the first of at least two such papers on this general theme that I will produce for the Institute for Development and Diplomacy.

The latest phase of the conflict over Ukraine has entered its second month. Although it has produced immediate ripple effects around the globe, its long-term repercussions will only begin cascading later. This analytic policy brief examines the multiple consequences thereof and its emerging new realities in the context of Europe.

The overt military phase of the lengthy conflict over Ukraine is now three weeks old. Shortly before the start of the armed hostilities that began on 24 February 2022, Pentagon sources suggested that Kiev would fall in just three days. I will come back to this forecast in the concluding section. The present policy brief focuses primarily on the military-strategic aspects of the present conflict, leaving aside political and other aspects for another time.

On 24 February 2022, the lengthy crisis over Ukraine escalated into a major conventional war with the deployment of a nearly 200,000-strong Russian force onto the territory of its neighbor. Although having become the largest war in Europe since 1945, Russia insists on calling it a “special military operation”—a rather Orwellian turn of phrase.